COP31 in Turkey Faces War, Energy Security, and AI Pressures on Climate Goals

By Valerie Volcovici and Simon Jessop

ANTLYA, Turkey, Nov 9 (Reuters) – Representatives from nearly 200 countries will convene on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast on Monday for two weeks of climate negotiations, as war‑driven energy security concerns, soaring AI‑power demand, and growing US non‑engagement intensify pressure on global efforts to curb warming.

The conflict with Iran has forced many nations to scramble for oil supplies and ramp up coal generation, while the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence is pushing up global electricity consumption and greenhouse‑gas emissions. Meanwhile, the world’s largest historical emitter, the United States, has abandoned climate cooperation for the second consecutive year.

All of these dynamics create a formidable backdrop that complicates Turkey’s bid to secure a decisive commitment at the host summit, according to observers. “It’s hard to be optimistic,” said John Holdren, professor of environmental policy at Harvard University.

Turkey’s COP31 presidency has placed a central goal for the UN‑sponsored meeting: to electrify more than a third of the global economy by 2035, up from roughly a fifth today. Nations are asked to sign a pledge supporting this target.

The pledge could accelerate a shift away from fossil‑fuel‑powered transport, heating, and cooking, thereby cutting planet‑warming emissions. However, critics note that the commitment does not require the new electricity to come from low‑carbon sources, sparking early debate over whether electrification alone qualifies as climate progress.

A coalition of countries, including vulnerable South‑Pacific island states, is pushing for a broader roadmap that phases out fossil fuels entirely—a point of contention at climate summits.

Oil‑ and gas‑producing nations such as Saudi Arabia argue that fossil fuels can still supply a substantial share of the global energy mix if paired with emission‑reduction technologies.

Urgent climate action is building momentum, with a UN Environment Programme report warning that the world is already on track to exceed the 1.5 °C warming threshold established at the 2015 Paris Agreement.

2026 saw a series of record‑breaking heatwaves across Western Europe and a massive glacier collapse in Nepal that triggered a catastrophic flood killing more than 1,450 people, with thousands still missing.

“This year has been one of the worst in terms of climate‑induced disaster casualties,” said Manjeet Dal, adviser to the Least Developed Country bloc and South Asia director of Climate Analytics.

WAR AND TECH

The Iran war has underscored the world’s dependence on fossil fuels, as has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on Moscow’s energy exports. Some analysts contend that the disruptions have also highlighted the advantages of renewables.

The conflict has disrupted Middle‑Eastern oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing fuel prices higher worldwide and prompting governments to seek alternative supplies.

US President Donald Trump’s administration has encouraged policies that boost oil, gas, and coal output to mitigate Mideast disruptions. In response, South Korea, India, Thailand and other Asian nations have increased coal reliance or expanded coal‑fired generation.

“People who once felt uneasy about high fossil‑fuel use are now more willing to advocate for continued reliance,” said Holdren at Harvard.

Renewable deployment has also risen, spurred by cheap clean‑tech exports from China, energising advocates of ambitious climate action.

“The war has strengthened the argument for accelerating the energy transition. The United States stands out as an outlier,” said Andre Correa do Lago, former chair of the UN Climate Conference.

Artificial intelligence adds a complex layer. Its rapid rollout is driving a surge in global power demand and rising greenhouse‑gas emissions, yet its benefits are proving irresistible even to environmental groups.

COP31 in Turkey will invite governments, businesses and other institutions to sign a pledge that defines sustainable principles for AI development and deployment.

Business lobbyists say the key outcome should be clear policy signals that give companies confidence to invest in electrification and the broader energy transition, turning adaptation needs into viable projects.

“Delivery cannot remain a slogan or be left to voluntary initiatives,” declared John Denton, secretary‑general of the International Chamber of Commerce. “COP31 must provide clear signals that enable businesses to invest in electrification and the wider energy transition—and turn adaptation needs into bankable projects.”

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