Corn Futures Surge as USDA Report Signals Bullish Outlook

Corn futures climbed higher on Friday after the USDA released more favorable-than-expected data. Contracts gained between 2.5 and 10.25 cents, with front-month positions outperforming. September corn rose 16.5 cents over the week, while December contracts increased 19.5 cents. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price advanced 7.75 cents to $4.095.

The latest monthly WASDE report indicated U.S. corn stocks for 2025/26 decreased by 125 million bushels to 2.02 billion bushels. This decline stemmed primarily from a 150 million bushel increase in feed and residual use and a 25 million bushel reduction in ethanol demand. New crop carryout fell 170 million bushels to 1.79 billion bushels, driven by lower carryover and a 50 million bushel boost in export forecasts.

Global corn inventories contracted by 5.96 million metric tons to 275.26 million metric tons, largely due to U.S. adjustments and a 1 million metric ton decrease in China’s old crop figures. EU production was revised downward by 3.72 million metric tons to 53.78 million metric tons, with Coceral further trimming EU and UK estimates by 4.5 million metric tons to 52.7 million metric tons. Argentina’s 2025/26 corn output was raised by 2 million metric tons to 63 million metric tons.

Weather forecasts from NOAA show 1 to 3 inches of precipitation expected across Missouri and parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio in the coming week, while the western regions of Nebraska, the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Iowa remain dry.

According to Friday’s CFTC data, managed money positions shifted back to a net long in corn futures and options during the week of July 7, primarily through short covering. This move added 58,868 contracts, bringing the net long position to 12,659 contracts.

July 26 Corn closed at $4.38, up 10.25 cents; nearby cash prices reached $4.095, up 7.75 cents; September 26 Corn settled at $4.395, up 8 cents; December 26 Corn finished at $4.61, up 9 cents; and new crop cash prices rose to $4.11375, up 8.25 cents.

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