The $1 million Cotillion Stakes (G1) appears destined to be a two-horse battle, with Always a Runner and Measure standing well above the rest in terms of sheer class.
Dig deeper and the verdict remains unchanged — this is shaping up to be a collision between those two elite fillies. In Grade 1 company, class tends to separate the contenders from the pretenders.
Running as the companion event to the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby (G1) on Saturday, the Cotillion gives Parx Racing its marquee attraction of the year.
Cotillion Stakes Odds: Always a Runner Goes Off as 2-1 Favorite in Nine-Horse Field
Always a Runner justifies her 8-5 favorite spot with a Kentucky Oaks (G1) victory and a remarkable consistency across her career. She has dipped below second only once in five lifetime starts, posting a record of 3-2-0 for trainer Chad Brown.
Her path to victory has been complicated by tough competition — she faced Counting Stars in both the Acorn Stakes (G1) and the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at Saratoga, finishing second in both while giving a strong account of herself.
This could finally be the race where she breaks through. But Measure presents a formidable challenge.
Measure Nears a Breakthrough Victory
Measuring in at 4-1 odds, Measure has steadily improved under trainer Mark Casse. She stepped up significantly in class with her third-place finish in the Coaching Club American Oaks, finishing 2 ½ lengths behind Always a Runner — a credible effort against top competition.
She then took on the best older fillies in the Alabama Stakes (G1) at Saratoga, battling gamely to finish just a neck behind My Gun’s Loaded.
One concern for bettors is the Cotillion’s distance of 1 1/16 miles. Measure thrives at 1 1/4 miles, as demonstrated in the Alabama, and some may wonder whether the shorter trip will play to her strengths.
Casse was so impressed by the Alabama performance that he briefly considered entering Measure in the Pennsylvania Derby against the colts. He ultimately decided the Cotillion was the better avenue.
“For the 3-year-old fillies, it’s their last shot on the dirt (against just 3-year-olds),” Casse explained. “It’s a big purse. It is a little shorter (1 1/16 miles) than I would like, but I have found that Parx plays a little better to closers and that should help her.”
That assessment rings true. Setting aside Always a Runner’s superiority on paper, Measure is a filly on the rise with strong momentum heading into this start.
“Measure is a horse we have been excited about for a long time,” Casse said. “It has just taken her a while to figure it out. It seems like she is getting better and better.”
Saturday will reveal just how much further she can go.
Completing the top three is My Miss Mo (5-1) on the rail, who should be a dangerous early pace threat after victories in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) and the Monmouth Oaks (G3).
Post time for the Cotillion is 4:58 p.m. ET.
The Picks: 1 Measure, 2 Always a Runner, 3 My Miss Mo
The Field for the $1 million Cotillion Stakes (G1), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:
| # | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | My Miss Mo (FL) | T. Gaffalione | Saffie A. Joseph Jr. | 5/1 |
| 2 | Bodacious Bay (KY) | M. J. Husbands | Saffie A. Joseph Jr. | 8/1 |
| 3 | Zany (KY) | J. R. Velazquez | Todd A. Pletcher | 9-2 |
| 4 | Always a Runner (KY) | Jose L. Ortiz | Chad C. Brown | 8/5 |
| 5 | Iron Orchard (NY) | Luis Saez | Steven M. Asmussen | 12/1 |
| 6 | Savor It (KY) | F. Martinez | Uriah St. Lewis | 30/1 |
| 7 | Ms Sophistication (KY) | Paco Lopez | Jorge Duarte Jr. | 15/1 |
| 8 | Measure (KY) | Manuel Franco | Mark E. Casse | 4/1 |
| 9 | Tap to Open (KY) | Flavien Prat | Brad H. Cox | 8/1 |
