Covid, Brexit and Liz Truss mini-budget led to lasting decline in mental health, study finds

Brexit, Liz Truss’s mini‑budget and other “shocks” over the last ten years have caused a serious and lasting deterioration in the mental health of the UK population, a new study has found.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia and the first and second Covid lockdowns also triggered large increases in psychological distress, as measured by rising rates of depression and anxiety.

The findings come as Professor Peter Fonagy prepares to publish the long‑awaited government‑commissioned report on the dramatic rise in diagnoses of mental illness, ADHD and autism in recent years. The report, due out on Friday, highlights how these conditions help explain why a record 2.8 million Britons are too unwell to work and almost one million young people aged 16‑24 have become “Neets” – not in education, employment or training.

Researchers led by Dr Annie Jeffery of University College London analysed data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, which follows 87 857 people aged 16 and over from 2009 to 2024, to assess the mental‑health impact of five major “systemic shocks”.

“The past decade has been turbulent, shaped by multiple overlapping shocks and ongoing uncertainty that have affected mental health across Britain,” said Jeffery.

“We have shown that major government decisions and global events can have a substantial effect on people’s mental well‑being.”

All five events caused immediate and significant damage to overall mental wellbeing, with the Brexit referendum in June 2016 and the first pandemic lockdown in March 2020 inflicting the greatest harm, the research team found.

Using the GHQ‑12 screening tool, the study linked the UK’s vote to leave the European Union to an increase in mental ill‑health equivalent to roughly 120 000 extra people seeking GP care for depression. The first Covid lockdown, however, produced a far larger impact, equating to about 900 000 additional GP consultations for depression.

Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine led to around 15 000 more Britons per month seeking help for depression, while Liz Truss’s disastrous mini‑budget in September 2022 resulted in roughly 23 000 extra monthly GP visits for depressive symptoms.

“We observed spikes in psychological distress immediately after the Brexit referendum and the first Covid‑19 lockdown, followed by more gradual monthly increases after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the 2022 mini‑budget,” said Jeffery.

Andy Bell, chief executive of the Centre for Mental Health think‑tank, commented: “There is clear evidence that Covid had a major impact on mental health, and it is understandable that the other listed shocks would do the same, either directly by reducing security and connection, or indirectly through downstream effects such as the cost‑of‑living crisis. The rising distress is not due to a single cause but to the cumulative effect of all these factors, exacerbated by years of austerity that have weakened protective buffers.”

Mental ill‑health costs the UK economy £300 billion annually, according to the think‑tank’s research.

The UCL‑led team’s findings are published in the journal BMJ Mental Health. They show that psychological distress had been rising clinically from 2009, but accelerated after 2015. Even though the most recent shock occurred in 2022, the elevated distress levels have persisted and have not returned to the lower pre‑2016 baseline.

In England, the number of people in contact with NHS mental‑health services almost doubled, from 2.64 million in 2016‑17 to 4.13 million in 2024‑25. New NHS referrals for mental ill‑health rose from 360 000 per month in April 2022 to 530 000 in July 2026 – a 47 % increase.

The surge in demand for care, driven by anxiety, stress and worry resulting from these shocks, has left NHS services under severe strain, said Tom Pollard, Mind’s director of policy, campaigns and public affairs.

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