March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) is down -0.03 (-0.20%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is down -1.40 (-0.33%). Sugar prices faced downward pressure today due to a significant drop in crude oil prices, with WTI crude (CLF26) hitting a 4.75-year low. This decline may incentivize sugar mills to prioritize sugar production over ethanol, increasing global sugar supplies.
Indian sugar production saw a 28% year-over-year increase from October 1 to December 15, 2024, to 7.8 MMT. Brazil’s projected 2025/26 sugar output rose to 45 MMT, driven by higher cane crushing for sugar rather than ethanol. Unica reported a 1.1% year-over-year rise in Brazil’s Center-South sugar output to 39.904 MMT by November.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) now anticipates a 1.625 million MT surplus for 2025/26, up from a prior 231,000 MT deficit forecast. Czarnikow revised its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT, reflecting increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projects a 19% year-over-year jump in production to 34.9 MMT, citing expanded cane acreage.
Thailand’s projected 5% year-over-year increase in sugar production to 10.5 MMT further adds to surplus concerns. The USDA’s May 22 report highlighted a record global 2025/26 sugar production of 189.318 MMT, with India’s output expected to rise 25% to 35.3 MMT and Thailand’s by 2% to 10.3 MMT.