Crude Prices Slip on Uncertain Iran Deal Signals

Published On 25 May 202625 May 2026

Oil prices have dropped sharply amid tentative expectations of a deal to resolve the US‑Iran conflict.

Brent crude, the principal global oil benchmark, slipped by roughly 5% on Sunday after U.S. President Donald Trump offered mixed signals about the likelihood of a lasting resolution.

July Brent futures were quoted at $98.47 per barrel at 01:05 GMT, down about 9% from a month earlier yet remaining more than 33% higher than levels before the war began.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose over 3% in early trading, reaching a record high after Friday’s close.

In a Truth Social post on Sunday, Trump said negotiations with Tehran were progressing in an orderly and constructive manner, while urging officials not to rush into an agreement.

“Both sides must take their time and get it right — there can be no mistakes,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

His comments followed a Saturday announcement that a deal was largely negotiated, including provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Fundamentally, the situation remains unchanged: 10‑11 million barrels per day of crude oil stay shut in as long as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, June Goh, senior oil market analyst at Sparta in Singapore, told Al Jazeera.

Nevertheless, markets anticipate a surge of up to 100 million barrels of crude oil from the currently stranded vessels once the agreement is implemented.

Goh warned that markets are likely to stay volatile for some time after any deal is finalized.

Sparta estimates that restoring normal operations will take three to six months, including the time needed to bring production and refineries back online, Goh said.

Iran has effectively blockaded the strait since the war began in late February, disrupting roughly one‑fifth of global oil trade.

The United States imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports in mid‑April, further disrupting commercial shipping in the waterway.

In his Truth Social post on Sunday, Trump said the U.S. blockade would stay in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.

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