- Polls indicate Democrats are competitive in 10 states Trump won by double digits in 2024.
- Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats to secure the Senate, including at least two in double-digit Trump states.
Updated 16 min 24 sec ago
October 2, 2026 02:52
WASHINGTON: Kentucky Democrats claim a once-in-a-generation opportunity to flip a US Senate seat in a Republican stronghold. However, they lack their governor’s support and sufficient funding. Kentucky is among several states that President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024 where Republicans are significantly trailing his performance, indicating Democrats have expanded their pathway to a majority in November’s elections. Yet, it remains unclear whether the party will allocate its limited resources to flipping seats previously deemed unreachable. The Democratic surge is most pronounced in states Trump won by wide margins, though Republicans are also underperforming in Georgia and North Carolina, where Trump won by 2 and 3 points, respectively. The volume of unexpectedly competitive states could scramble the final stretch of the campaign as top officials determine where to deploy their war chests.
“Not only is there a swing away from the Republican Party compared to 2024, but the swing appears larger in red America than in blue America, placing these easily won Trump states firmly into play,” said David Hopkins, a political science professor at Boston College.
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority and entered the cycle with a favorable map to maintain control during the final two years of Trump’s presidency. However, with less than five weeks until Election Day, polling shows Democrats are competitive in 10 states Trump won by double digits in 2024: Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, Florida, Kansas, Nebraska, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Kentucky. To win the Senate, Democrats must defend two seats in Trump-carried states and secure four Republican-held seats, including at least two in double-digit Trump states. Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas have traditionally been viewed as battlegrounds this cycle, but the political environment is so unfavorable for Republicans that Democrat Adam Hamilton is narrowly leading US Senator Roger Marshall in recent Kansas polls—a state Trump won by 16 points.
Democratic candidates Angie Nixon of Florida and Annie Andrews of South Carolina are running neck-and-neck against Republican incumbents in recent polls, while Democratic-aligned candidates in Nebraska, Mississippi, and Kentucky trail by single digits. Trump carried those states by margins ranging from 13 in Florida to 31 in Kentucky. He told reporters on Monday that “the polls are fake.” Polls capture voter sentiments but do not necessarily predict election outcomes. For instance, several primary polls showed Francesca Hong leading by 20 or more points in the Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor, yet she lost by less than 1 percent.
Republicans say they are not taking anything for granted this cycle. US Senator Tim Scott, who chairs Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, stated that Republicans are running in “a record number of toss-up races,” and money will not be a problem. The party’s top candidates are backed by hundreds of millions of dollars in outside spending. “Cash is king,” Scott told reporters on Wednesday. “It’s a powerful tool providing the firepower necessary to share our message, which is incredibly important for us to win these races.”
Kentucky race tightens. Democrat Charles Booker’s internal polling has him within single digits of US Representative Andy Barr in the race to succeed longtime Republican US Senator Mitch McConnell. However, Barr holds a $2 million cash advantage over Booker, whose allies say Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, could provide the boost needed to win. “We have a shot here in Kentucky to flip this seat, and we need to do it now,” said Pamela Stevenson, minority floor leader of the Kentucky House.
Eric Hyers, Beshear’s 2019 and 2023 campaign manager who runs his In This Together PAC, stated the governor has already endorsed Booker. “They’ll likely be together at get-out-the-vote events down the homestretch of the campaign,” Hyers said.
Political prognosticators have shifted some races toward Democrats in deeply Republican states, but many expansion seats maintain ratings viewing them as solidly Republican or likely to remain Republican. The White House is deploying Trump to these states to boost base turnout in November. The president will visit Texas and campaign in Oklahoma on Thursday, followed by rallies in Alabama on Friday, Ohio on Saturday, and Nebraska on Monday. Trump won Oklahoma by 34 points, Texas by 14, Alabama by 31, Ohio by 11, and Nebraska by 21. His approval rating has fallen to a historic low of 32 percent, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, while his war with Iran and tariffs have driven up prices as voters consistently highlight the cost of living as their top midterm concern. This likely makes him more of a liability than an asset in traditional battlegrounds, political analysts say.
Democrats see an expanded Senate map. “Our goal has always been a Democratic Senate majority, and the pathways to get there have only gotten bigger since the start of the cycle,” said Lauren French, a spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC. Super PACs can raise and spend unlimited sums but cannot coordinate with candidates, campaigns, or party committees. French said Republicans have diverted resources from Georgia and North Carolina to Republican strongholds, where Republicans are starting to discuss gas prices and other costs.
While some Republicans have leaned into culture war issues such as transgender athletes in girls’ and women’s sports, others have begun distancing themselves from the Trump administration. This includes Republicans in Kansas and Mississippi, where US Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith acknowledged in a social media video last week that fuel cost was her constituents’ top issue. “I feel it, too, every time I fill up my truck to get around the state,” she said. “This administration is working to end the conflict with Iran, which will ultimately lower the price of fuel.”
Money remains an uncertain factor. Republicans are already outspending Democrats by millions of dollars—tens of millions in some cases—on future ad reservations in Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska, and Kansas, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Republicans in reach states—Republican strongholds that could flip to Democrats in a wave election—also have significant financial advantages over their opponents, except in South Carolina, where Andrews entered July with more than $4 million on hand. US Senator Darline Graham, appointed to the seat in July after the death of her brother US Senator Lindsey Graham, won the Republican nomination in an August special primary runoff but reported having just $250,000 as of August 5.
Rufus Gifford, former finance chair for Joe Biden’s and Kamala Harris’ presidential campaigns, said there are strategic advantages to Democrats investing in expansion states, such as forcing Republicans to play defense in unexpected areas. “The truth is that many of these states have been fool’s gold for Democrats for a very, very long time,” he said. “But there’s very little doubt that we have a shot in some of these even more reach states.”