Democratic Rep. Don Davis Proposes Ban on Candidates Trading in Their Own Election Markets

Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) was photographed outside the Democratic National Committee on September 19, 2024.

Tom Williams | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

With fewer than thirty days left before the midterm elections, political contracts on prediction markets are drawing heightened attention as analysts assess whether they can accurately forecast outcomes in races nationwide. Yet one Democratic lawmaker seeks to prohibit candidates from trading on those contracts.

On Monday, Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) introduced legislation that would bar federal office candidates from engaging in prediction‑market trades tied to their own elections, according to a statement his office provided exclusively to CNBC.

Introduced during a pro forma session of the House, the “No Betting on Your Own Race Act” aims to codify into law the restrictions that prediction‑market platforms already impose on their users. Those platforms have moved to block individual candidates from trading on their own contracts due to insider‑trading concerns.

Under Davis’s proposal, violators would face a fine of either $10,000 or three times the net profit gained from the trade—whichever amount is greater.

“We don’t let athletes bet on their own games, and a candidate running for federal office should be held to the same standard—trading on their own election must be off limits. To make this expectation clear for every federal campaign committee, Congress needs to pass this commonsense measure,” Davis said in a statement.

A Kalshi billboard displaying 2024 presidential election odds stands opposite the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York, photographed on November 6, 2024.

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The timing of Davis’s bill follows a controversy involving Laurie Buckhout, his Republican challenger in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District—a race regarded as a closely contested battleground.

In August, Buckhout reached a settlement with prediction‑market platform Kalshi after the firm determined she had traded on contracts linked to her own candidacy. She paid a penalty of just under $2,600 and was barred from the platform for three years.

“I bet on myself—literally,” she said in a statement. “It was a poor decision, and once I realized there was an issue I moved quickly to correct it.”

At the time, Davis posted on X that his opponent’s decision to place those trades constituted “a disqualifying breach of public trust.”

Because neither the House nor the Senate is scheduled to reconvene until after the midterm elections, the proposal stands little chance of taking effect for the current election cycle.

Earlier in April, the Senate passed a resolution prohibiting senators and their staff from trading on prediction markets—a step that platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket welcomed. However, the resolution did not cover non‑incumbent Senate candidates.

The House of Representatives has not yet adopted a comparable ban, although similar resolutions have been introduced.

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