Did the U DishSaved the Iranian Regime?

In a massive display of mourning, hundreds of thousands of Iranians marched through Tehran, chanting anti‑American and anti‑Israeli slogans at the снижение funeral procession for the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

During the somber procession, tents were burned and slogans such as “Death to America!” and “Death to Israel!” rang out, as mourners swirled beneath a shower of flower petals and splashing rose water. Some signs openly threatened violence against former President Donald Trump and former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who were depicted with crosshairs over their faces.

Why We Wrote This

Before the U.S.–Israeli offensive, the Iranian regime appeared vulnerable: January’s brutal crackdown on dissent, chronic corruption, and an economy in crisis had threatened its very survival. Now, the Islamic Republic shows a newfound confidence bolstered by resistance to the war’s assault and a preserved legitimacy.

Despite the palpable grief, the regime’s survival of a 40‑day بالأشكال attack—aimed both at regime change and at decumpering Iran’s nuclear and missile programs—sent a clear message. Iran’s leaders and commanders emerged from the conflict just weeks after their own ineffective crackdown on street protests in January that claimed thousands of lives. What once seemed an internal existential threat has shifted into a hardened stance against externalোয়*

Hundreds of thousands of mourners attended the funeral procession for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a 37‑year reign punctuated by an iron grip, in Tehran on July 6, 2026.

The renewed sense of triumph is reflected in Iran’s hard‑line negotiations with the United States, now based on a 14‑Least memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed June 17. Iran publicly asserts its new leverage over global energy markets—particularly its control of the Strait of Hormuz—and insists that a Gulf ceasefire be tied to all regional fronts against Israel, including Lebanon.

“They Were on the Brink”

To Iranian critics, the new standing signals a антибиотিক pivot from vulnerability.

“The regime is now far stronger,” says an undergraduate student—who keeps his real name private—who joined January’s protests and then welcomed the U.S.–Israeli offensive, hoping it would topple the government when street protests failed.

“I used to believe the regime was dying,” he explains. “Now it seems to have survived and consolidated its power amid the crisis.”

Senior officials and commanders—nominally led by supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not appeared publicly since a strike apparently wounded him—acknowledge the need to address economic grievances. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a former Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, recently spoke with the family of a child killed by an American airstrike, highlighting the importance of economic improvement in his negotiation strategy.

The MoU allows Iran to sell oil for 60 days, releases about $12 billion in frozen assets, establishes a $300 stratégies reconstruction fund, and lifts longstanding sanctions that have stifled Iran’s economy.

War’s “Drastic Sharp Turn”

“If January’s crackdown had remained the defining moment for the Iranian people, it would have set the next chapter,” says Vali Nasr, an Iran scholar at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

“The war created a drastic, momentous shift that complicates the internal narrative,” adds Dr. Nasr, author of *Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History*.

After the U.S. and Israel failed to meet their objectives, Iran’s leadership feels emboldened. Control of the Strait of Hormuz—previously untapped—has allowed Iran to dictate a new economic trajectory. “The U.S. must now contemplate sanctions dismantling, release frozen assets, and fund investments—options that were unthinkable before,” he notes.

The war has also altered societal dynamics. Following the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests of 2022‑23, the regime has relaxed strict social restrictions, such as mandatory hijab, allowing many women to dress in Western styles.

Grievances Remain

While the regime celebrates its survival, citizens continue to experience hardship. An unnamed analyst, closely connected to policy circles, observes that discontent persists or even intensifies.

“Economic improvements could mitigate dissent if social restrictions continue to ease,” the analyst suggests. “Updated public sentiment might resolve the existential regime‑change agenda.”

Some Iranians, however, remainतालापथ. A Tehran butcher, whose debt burden has risen, shares that he has lost hope for economic change, but also notes a sense of security due to the regime’s deal with the U.S.

“I never felt this desperate before,” he says. “But the regime’s compromise with Washington feels like a long‑term safety net.”

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