Armenia and Georgia, two key nations in the Caucasus, are experiencing significant political turmoil. On the surface, their situations appear strikingly similar. Both former Soviet republics are attempting to diversify their international relationships amidst the fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Each faces intense domestic pushback, leading their governments to wage “lawfare” campaigns against strong political opposition and attempt to compel their respective national churches to align with government policy.
However, despite the similarity of their domestic tactics, Armenia and Georgia are steering in opposite geopolitical directions. Armenia is actively striving to integrate with the European Union, whereas Georgia is pivoting away from Europe to restore and strengthen ties with Russia. In an increasingly unstable global order, neither nation has yet found a clear, successful path forward.
Fighting with the church
In Yerevan, Armenia’s rose-hued capital, tensions are simmering just beneath the surface. Seven top clergypersons of the Armenian Apostolic Church, including the church head, Karekin II, have been charged with crimes related to the church’s refusal to restore a mutinous bishop. Critics argue that these charges stem directly from the clergy’s opposition to the peace process initiated by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and more broadly, his efforts to detach Armenia from Russian-led military and economic alliances in favor of EU membership.
At least 300 opposition leaders, activists, journalists, and business figures, including a former president, have been arrested or subjected to travel bans and asset seizures since Mr. Pashinyan narrowly won parliamentary elections in June. Samvel Karapetyan, a Moscow-backed tycoon and leader of the largest opposition party, has been under house arrest since the beginning of the year. While the government characterizes this crackdown as an anti-corruption campaign, critics point out that virtually all those targeted are “pro-Russian” opponents of Mr. Pashinyan’s pro-EU course.
Sofi, a Yerevan restaurateur who declined to give her full name for fear of repercussions to her business, expresses deep concern about the deteriorating political climate. Despite being a major supporter of the 2018 popular revolt that brought Mr. Pashinyan to power, and despite his oversight of the 2020 war with Azerbaijan, she voted for him in subsequent elections. “Everyone in my circle hopes that Pashinyan knows what he’s doing,” she says. “The Russians did not help us, and stood aside when a whole region full of Armenians was ethnically cleansed by Azerbaijan. Pashinyan is right to seek peace, and it is a good idea to look for alternatives to our dependence on Russia. But there doesn’t seem much chance of joining the EU anytime soon, and meanwhile, Russia is our biggest trading partner. Why provoke them? And all these arrests of opposition people really look bad.”
Which union should Armenia join?
Mr. Pashinyan rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s appeal in early September for Armenia to hold a referendum on EU membership. Armenia is already a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, which accounts for more than a third of the country’s exports and provides subsidized energy. Mr. Putin argued that Armenia cannot belong to two such organizations simultaneously, and that the nation’s choice should be determined by a popular vote. In response, Mr. Pashinyan stated that Armenia has already passed a law launching its bid to join the EU, making further measures unnecessary.
“The Armenian leadership declare that they are leaving [the economic union], but they want to go on indefinitely enjoying all the benefits they get from it,” says Andrei Klimov, an official with the ruling United Russia party in Moscow. “This is insulting. If you want to leave, then leave. But don’t expect us to pick up the tab.”
Mr. Pashinyan’s efforts to curb the rebellious clergy have encountered significant legal hurdles. Thus far, four judges have recused themselves rather than hear the case against Karekin, and a prosecutor has resigned, but efforts to change the church’s leadership seem likely to continue.
“The church commands overwhelming popularity in Armenia,” says Pietro Shakarian, a history lecturer at the American University of Armenia in Yerevan. “Church leaders became very vocal in their criticism of the government’s course, especially after the loss of Karabakh,” which saw 100,000 people driven from the traditionally Armenian region in Azerbaijan three years ago.
“The church has a historical role in Armenian identity, it prizes its independence, and Pashinyan is trying to subordinate it to the state. It’s not surprising that he can’t find a judge to take the case,” says Dr. Shakarian.
A similar scenario in Georgia
In neighboring Georgia, a government that had long been on the EU track and had refused to join the Russian-led economic union has suspended its bid to join Europe. Now, it is drawing closer to Russia, seeking to maximize economic benefits and avoid any repetition of the 2008 war that it lost to Russia. The ruling Georgian Dream government is accused of pressuring the conservative Georgian Orthodox Church into political alliance with the state, arresting hundreds of pro-EU political activists, and passing Russian-style legislation curbing foreign-funded nongovernmental organizations. The EU has punished Georgia by withdrawing financial aid, cutting high-level contacts, and canceling visa-free travel for Georgian diplomats.
Bryan Gigantino, a lecturer at the Georgian American University in Tbilisi, says both Armenia and Georgia are responding to global changes by rebalancing and diversifying their relationships, although they are moving from different starting points. Georgia was already heavily engaged with the EU, while Armenia is moving from a place of dependence on Russia. “Improved economic ties with Russia are facilitating economic growth in Georgia, and since the country isn’t in any economic union, it has strategic room to maneuver. Whereas Armenia’s pursuit of EU membership would require it to leave the Russian-led one,” he says.
Dr. Shakarian notes, with a wry smile, that the authoritarian drift and civil rights violations happening in the two countries tend to get totally different treatment by Western media and officialdom. “The EU is highly critical of Georgia, but Pashinyan gets pretty much carte blanche,” he says. “There is a very clear double standard.”
