The Rapid Support Forces (R.S.F.) have intensified drone strikes on El Obeid, a key city in south-central Sudan, in a bid to overtake the area from the Sudanese Army.
In June, the U.S. State Department reported that the R.S.F. was consolidating forces around El Obeid, cautioning that an R.S.F. takeover could lead to atrocities akin to those seen in El Fasher.
The United Nations and the African Union have echoed these concerns, emphasizing the potential for severe humanitarian consequences should the R.S.F. capture the city.
Sudan’s civil war, which erupted in April 2023 following a power struggle between the military and the R.S.F., has resulted in one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises, displacing approximately 14 million people, with some estimates placing the death toll at 400,000.
Strategic Importance of El Obeid
El Obeid holds strategic importance due to its central location on a major highway connecting Darfur to eastern Sudan, as well as a vital oil pipeline transporting crude to Port Sudan via the Kordofan region.
An R.S.F. capture would enable the group to consolidate its grip on western Sudan after securing El Fasher, with spokesperson Ahmed Tugud Lissan indicating plans to advance on Khartoum once El Obeid is secured, though current efforts face significant challenges.
Once home to approximately 500,000 residents, El Obeid’s population has likely swelled as displaced individuals seek refuge there, according to UN estimates.
Military Stalemate Continues
Analysts suggest an R.S.F. capture of El Obeid in the near term is improbable, as the Sudanese Army maintains firm control over the city.
Recent gains by the Sudanese Army in three northern towns have established a critical supply corridor spanning over 200 miles from Khartoum to El Obeid, bolstering defenses, per International Crisis Group’s Alan Boswell, who noted the city’s unusual stability.
R.S.F. leadership continues to claim intentions to seize El Obeid and advance on the capital, though reduced drone activity suggests evolving battlefield dynamics, with aerial attacks becoming central to their strategy.
Civilian Suffering Intensifies
While the R.S.F. asserts that its drone strikes target only military objectives, human rights groups have documented civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, including fuel depots and water treatment facilities, which have disrupted power grids and water supplies.
U.N. Women’s recent report highlights severe risks faced by women and girls, who are forced to collect water after dark due to daytime strikes, contributing to a surge in sexual violence cases.
Parallels to El Fasher’s Fall
El Fasher fell in October after a protracted siege, with R.S.F. forces documenting executions and massacres. Although fears of similar atrocities in El Obeid persist, analysts note reduced ethnic tensions here compared to Darfur’s previous conflicts.
Human rights organizations have criticized inadequate international action to prevent El Fasher’s fall, pointing to insufficient pressure on the UAE for drone arms supplies despite evidence of such transfers. The Emirati foreign ministry has denied these allegations.
Researcher Mohamed Osman of Human Rights Watch attributes the El Obeid crisis to global inaction and foreign arms proliferation, emphasizing that both R.S.F. and Sudanese Army have violated international law in documented atrocities.
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