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With the election just a month away, polls and recent news indicate Democrats are gaining momentum. A consensus projection from 270towin forecasts a Democratic takeover of the House, while the Senate race remains uncertain.
As of 5:00 p.m. ET on Friday, prediction‑market participants on Kalshi—and similarly on Polymarket—are betting that Democrats will win both chambers.
The composition of the incoming Congress will determine regulator oversight, the likelihood of near‑term crypto legislation, and the steps crypto firms must take to stay aligned with the majority party.
Although agencies such as the SEC, CFTC, OCC, Treasury and others will continue rulemaking over the coming year, Congress retains significant oversight authority. The Clarity Act aimed to clarify how these bodies may engage with crypto, and lawmakers will also need to approve the regulators’ budgets for next year.
Congress’s stance on upcoming legislation remains to be seen. While a new market‑structure bill could be considered, its fate is uncertain. Tax reform, however, is more definite: the House Ways and Means Committee approved a crypto‑tax measure last month with strong bipartisan support, and Senator Steve Daines introduced a comparable bill in the Senate last week.
