Ethiopia Conflict Escalates: Heavy Fighting in Afar and Amhara as Internet Blackout Hits Tigray

Ethiopian federal forces engaged in heavy overnight combat to repel a Tigray rebel offensive in the Afar region on Friday, according to humanitarian sources, amid reports of a telecommunications blackout across northern Ethiopia.

Fighters from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) captured local airports earlier this week and pushed into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions, declaring a return to “full-blown war” with the federal government. The escalation has sparked fears of a repeat of the 2020-2022 civil war, which killed an estimated 600,000 people and featured a prolonged telecommunications blackout and humanitarian blockade on Tigray.

Internet monitor Netblocks confirmed a disruption in northern Ethiopia consistent with a telecoms blackout in Tigray on Friday. AFP was unable to reach sources in the region by phone.

A humanitarian source in Afar reported intense fighting overnight around Abala, a strategic mountain town on the Tigray border. “The federal forces pushed the rebels from entering the town,” the source said, noting the deployment of a military drone. Significant clashes also erupted Thursday in the North Wollo Zone of Amhara, including areas surrounding the UNESCO World Heritage site of Lalibela, renowned for its ancient rock-hewn churches.

Analysts suggest the TPLF is replicating its previous wartime strategy: advancing south through Amhara toward the capital, Addis Ababa, while the Afar offensive aims to sever the critical supply corridor from Djibouti, which handles nearly all of landlocked Ethiopia’s maritime trade, including fuel imports.

The TPLF has formed a coalition with six other armed groups seeking to unseat Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. “The alliance is likely trying to seize settlements alongside key infrastructure routes to undermine federal government’s ability to supply,” said Edward Bach, an analyst at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.

Despite the rebel offensive, the federal government retains significant military advantages, including a substantial drone arsenal, an estimated 500,000 troops, and support from external actors, notably the United Arab Emirates.

The renewed hostilities present a diplomatic challenge for the United States, which lifted sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea earlier this month, citing the expiration of the national emergency declared during the previous war. The U.S. embassy in Addis Ababa sided with the federal government this week, expressing disappointment at the TPLF’s “large-scale offensive.”

The conflict also risks drawing in Eritrea, which fears Ethiopia may move to seize Eritrean territory to secure Red Sea access.

Inside Tigray, panic buying has driven up prices for basic goods as residents brace for potential isolation. “There is panic in the community,” said Samuel Gebreslassie, a 37-year-old spice shop worker in the regional capital, Mekelle. “There is deep fear that banks, telecom networks, electricity and basic goods could be cut off again.”

The TPLF dominated Ethiopian politics from 1991 until Abiy’s rise in 2018, a marginalization that eventually triggered the devastating civil war marked by widespread atrocities. The 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement halted major hostilities but was never fully implemented, leaving roughly one million people displaced. Sporadic clashes have persisted, with federal forces conducting drone strikes in Tigray and massing troops at regional borders in recent months. Human rights groups have accused the TPLF of conducting a forced recruitment campaign this year in preparation for renewed conflict.

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