Ethiopia’s Renewed Tigray Conflict Ignites Fears of Wider Regional Destabilization

In September, hostilities erupted in Ethiopia’s Tigray region between federal government forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), effectively dismantling the 2022 peace agreement. By October, Ethiopian troops had retaken a strategic airport and several towns from the TPLF, advancing toward the Eritrean border. The resurgence of fighting has heightened concerns on two fronts: deepening internal instability, particularly following the TPLF’s alignment with other armed factions under a new Alliance for Survival, and the prospect of a renewed interstate war with Eritrea. Addis Ababa has accused Asmara of backing the TPLF and deploying Eritrean troops across the border, prompting a severance of diplomatic ties.

This escalation in northern Ethiopia unfolds against a backdrop of longstanding regional friction, including disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s effects on the Nile River and landlocked Ethiopia’s pursuit of direct maritime access. We consulted five experts to evaluate the risks the Tigray conflict poses to Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Sudan, and Egypt.

William Davison, Editor with Africa Confidential and Founder of Ethiopia Insight, outlines the stakes for Ethiopia. While state collapse remains a low-probability scenario, it represents the gravest risk. Such an outcome could materialize if stiff TPLF resistance galvanizes insurgencies in the Amhara and Oromia regions, culminating in a rebel advance on Addis Ababa—a recipe for catastrophic disorder.

A more plausible, though still dangerous, scenario involves the federal military becoming bogged down in a protracted Tigray insurgency backed by Eritrean support. In this event, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government would likely cede ground to rebels elsewhere, deepening the country’s pervasive insecurity without necessarily threatening the state’s existence.

Conversely, the most attainable positive outcome would be the decisive defeat of the TPLF, the primary driver of ethnonationalist politics. This would fracture the rebel coalition, potentially enabling Abiy to advance constitutional reforms aimed at centralizing authority and de-ethnicizing the federation.

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