EU Sanctions Deadlock: Bulgaria’s Opposition and the Kirill Controversy

Negotiations over the 21st EU sanctions package against Russia are facing significant delays, with major political divisions and the risk of a Bulgarian veto complicating efforts to achieve consensus.

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EU ambassadors convened last Friday to review a revised draft of the sanctions proposal, but no agreement was reached. Discussions are expected to continue, though time is running out.

The EU must finalize the agreement by 15 July to prevent an automatic adjustment of the price cap on Russian seaborne oil, which is designed to remain 15% below market averages. Without a deal, the cap could increase, providing economic relief to Moscow.

As oil prices have risen following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Commission has proposed maintaining the cap at $44 per barrel until January 2027. Ambassadors are considering either postponing the review or implementing a new fixed cap, according to sources within the diplomatic process.

The prohibition on LNG tanker sales has also sparked debate, alongside proposed restrictions on Russian fish imports—a sector historically untouched by sanctions. Member states like Germany, France, Poland, and the Netherlands import significant quantities of Russian cod and pollock annually.

An initiative to bar Russian soldiers involved in Ukraine’s invasion from entering the EU is encountering opposition from France and Italy.

An EU diplomat acknowledged that the Commission’s original draft had already been diluted through consensus-driven adjustments to accommodate differing member state concerns.

Meanwhile, Bulgaria, led by Prime Minister Rumen Radev, has emerged as a key obstacle. Rallying public resistance, Radev has declared his opposition to sanctioning Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church and accused of promoting ideological narratives to justify the invasion of Ukraine.

The proposed package seeks to impose travel bans and asset freezes on Kirill. This marked a reversal from the EU’s 2022 attempt to blacklist him, which was blocked by Hungary under Viktor Orbán’s leadership, citing religious freedom concerns.

While Hungary’s current government has signaled openness to targeting Kirill in the negotiations, Bulgarian authorities have pushed for his removal from the sanctions list. Radev has also raised concerns about an EU move to restrict Vagit Alekperov, founder of oil giant Lukoil, who resigned as president in 2022 amid sanctions but retained shares.

Radev argues that sanctioning Alekperov could jeopardize a €3 billion compensation claim from Lukoil over Bulgaria’s nationalization of the Neftohim Burgas refinery early last year. The facility, previously under Russian control, now operates without Russian oil supply after U.S.-led sanctions, and a special administrator was appointed in November.

Radev has further cited concerns about potential disruptions to fertilizer supplies and spare parts for Sofia’s metro system. In a defiant statement last week, he declared: “We will not allow the sanctions package to pass in its current form. We have a vote, and we will use it.”

The protracted negotiations are slated to transition under Ireland’s EU Council presidency on 1 July, with Irish Ambassador Aingeal O’Donoghue indicating confidence in meeting the 15 July deadline. Speaking ahead of the transition, O’Donoghue emphasized the need for “listening to member states, understanding their bottom lines, and pursuing compromises.”

“Ultimately, these packages are sort of a balance,” O’Donoghue noted during a press conference. The process may ultimately hinge on a delicate equilibrium between economic pragmatism and geopolitical resolve.

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