The rebound off the 0.9122 low carried further into last week, pushing through the 0.9258 cluster and clearing the 38.2% retracement of the 0.9485-to-0.9122 decline, which sits at 0.9261. With the near-term momentum now stretched, the initial bias for the week ahead is neutral. A break below 0.9183 would signal that the corrective bounce has run its course and open the door to a retest of the 0.9122 low. On the flip side, a sustained move above 0.9258 would set its sights on the 61.8% retracement level at 0.9346.
Turning to the broader picture, the latest price action points to the rally from 0.8979 having concluded as a three-wave corrective advance that peaked at 0.9485. This revives the medium-term bearish outlook and suggests the larger downtrend from the 0.9928 high (set in 2024) remains intact. A subsequent break of the 0.8979 low is favored over the longer horizon.
On the longer-term view, the pair’s inability to hold above the 0.9407 level—former support that has since flipped into resistance at the 2022 low—combined with rejection below the 55-month EMA (currently at 0.9618), reinforces the case that the broader downtrend from the 1.2004 high of 2018 is still underway.
