The immediate focus is on the 0.8551 support level in EUR/GBP following today’s decline. A confirmed break below this level would suggest that the recent corrective rebound from 0.8453 has run its course at 0.8611, opening the door for a renewed downtrend toward the initial low. However, if the pair manages to hold above 0.8610, it could dampen the bearish outlook and set the stage for a stronger rally toward the 0.8728 resistance zone.
Zooming out to the broader picture, the recent rise from 0.8221 — the 2024 low — appears to have peaked at 0.8863, just shy of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 0.9267 (2025 high) to 0.8221 range, which sits at 0.8867. A deeper pullback would likely see the pair retracing back toward the 0.8221 region. For the time being, the overall bias remains neutral at best, provided that the 0.8610 level continues to act as a floor. A sustained break above 0.8610, however, would challenge the bearish thesis and suggest that the decline from 0.8863 may have been nothing more than a temporary correction rather than a structural reversal.
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