On a short-term basis, the EUR/GBP pair maintains a bearish bias. A decisive decline beneath the 0.8453 support level would signal a move toward the 61.8% Fibonacci projection target of 0.8441, calculated from the 0.8728 to 0.8453 range off 0.8611. A subsequent firm break of 0.8441 would open targets toward the 100% projection level at 0.8336. Conversely, holding above the minor resistance at 0.8504 would shift the intraday bias to neutral first.
In the broader market context, the upward trend originating from the 2024 low of 0.8221 appears to have completed at 0.8863, positioned just ahead of the 38.2% retracement level at 0.8867 (based on the 2025 high of 0.9267 to the 0.8221 low). A more significant correction back to 0.8221 remains on the table. For now, the medium-term view stays neutral at best, provided that 0.8610, which has flipped from support to resistance, holds. However, a sustained break below 0.8610 would indicate that the decline from 0.8863 was a corrective retracement rather than the start of a reversal.
