EUR/JPY rose briefly to 186.18 before pulling back sharply. The downside remains supported above 184.42, and the initial bias stays neutral this week. The rebound from 182.01 represents the second leg of the corrective pattern that began at 187.93 and may already have completed at 186.18. A decisive break below 184.42 would suggest the third leg has begun. Intraday bias is now tilted toward downside toward the 182.01 support level and lower. Risk remains mildly bearish as long as 186.18 holds, should a recovery occur.
Overall, there are no signs of a reversal at present. The uptrend that started from the 114.42 low in 2020 is expected to resume later, targeting a 78.6% projection of 124.37 (the 2022 low) to 175.41 (the 2025 high), measured from 154.77 at 194.88. Nevertheless, a sustained breach of the 55‑week exponential moving average—currently at 178.53—would indicate that the market is already in a medium‑term downtrend toward the 175.41 level, which now acts as resistance turned support.
In the long‑term view, the uptrend that began from the 94.11 low in 2021 is ongoing. The next target is a 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (the 2014 high) starting from the 114.42 low in 2020, reaching 191.32. This scenario is expected to hold as long as the 55‑week EMA, currently at 178.53, remains intact.
