EUR/JPY Weekly Technical Forecast: Sideways Consolidation Below 186.00 Sets Stage for Next Move

The EUR/JPY pair settled into a sideways trading range beneath the 186.00 level during the previous week. The initial bias remains neutral heading into the current week, though a deeper pullback cannot be ruled out. Any downside movement, however, should find support at 183.90, which could trigger a renewed rebound. A sustained break above 186.00 would reignite the rally from 179.34, targeting a retest of the 187.42 level before pushing toward the 187.93 high.

From a broader perspective, the strong rebound from the rising 55-week EMA, currently positioned at 180.81, preserves the established uptrend originating from the 114.42 low recorded in 2020. A decisive break above 187.93 would set the stage for a move toward 194.88, representing the 78.6% projection derived from the 124.37 low of 2022 to the 175.41 high of 2025, measured from 154.77. Conversely, a sustained break below the 55-week EMA would suggest that the pair has already entered a medium-term downtrend, with the 175.41 level transitioning from resistance to support and potentially giving way to further declines.

Looking at the longer-term outlook, the uptrend that began from the 94.11 low in 2021 remains firmly in progress. The next major objective is the 191.32 level, which represents the 138.2% projection of the move from 94.11 to the 149.76 high in 2014, measured from the 114.42 low in 2020. This bullish scenario remains the preferred outlook as long as the 175.41 support level, formerly a resistance, continues to hold.

Source link