EUR/USD remains in range‑bound trading with a neutral intraday outlook. A further decline is anticipated as long as the 1.1276 resistance holds. Should the price drop below 1.1111, the larger downside move from the 1.2081 peak could extend to the 1.0904 Fibonacci level. Conversely, a decisive break above 1.1276 would signal a short‑term bottom and trigger a stronger rebound toward the 55‑day exponential moving average, currently at 1.1373.
In the broader context, today’s price action indicates that the decline from the 1.2081 medium‑term high may reverse the earlier rally from the 1.0176 low (2025) and possibly the 0.9534 low (2022). A deeper correction is expected, targeting the 61.8% retracement of the 1.0176‑to‑1.2081 range at 1.0904. For the moment, downside risk remains as long as the 1.1710 resistance is intact, with upside potential pending a breakout.
