The Euro continues its sharp decline, entering its fifth consecutive day of losses and reaching its lowest level in a year on Tuesday, following the sustained weakening of its former 2026 low (1.1410).
Surging expectations of US Federal Reserve interest rate increases are weighing heavily on the single currency, as persistent upward pressure on the US dollar underscores the divergent monetary policy landscapes. Recent dovish statements from European Central Bank President Lagarde have further intensified this bearish momentum.
The latest sell-off signals approaching critical technical support at 1.1354, identified as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2023-2024 rally (from 1.0177 to 1.2082). Analysts highlight the formation of a potential head-and-shoulders pattern on the weekly chart, which could further intensify bearish sentiment.
Technical indicators confirm a strong bearish bias on daily charts. However, heightened market sensitivity around the 1.1354–1.1290 range (encompassing the 100-week moving average) introduces uncertainty, with potential for brief rebounds driven by profit-taking activities.
Broader market conditions suggest upside movements are likely constrained, with the 1.1500 psychological threshold—coinciding with the declining 10-day moving average and the boundary of previous daily highs—projected as a key area to watch for bearish realignment opportunities.
Should technical resistance break at 1.1354 or 1.1290, market trajectory would accelerate toward the 1.1130 level, corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023–2024 rally. Ultimately, a confirmed breakdown could expose the deeper weekly cloud base at 1.1048 and intensify bearish pressure on the critical 1.1000 psychological zone, anchored by the 200-week moving average.
Resistance Levels: 1.1410; 1.1443; 1.1500; 1.1555
Support Levels: 1.1354; 1.1290; 1.1210; 1.1130
