Chelsea and Tottenham open the new Premier League season with renewed optimism, refreshed squads and the advantage of avoiding midweek European fixtures.
Chelsea are under new management, have broken their British transfer record and added experienced players to a youthful roster that finished last season as the league’s youngest side.
Spurs, meanwhile, will operate without the threat of relegation and have benefited from a more flexible budget under Roberto De Zerbi.
Neither club will compete in Europe after disappointing domestic campaigns last term, which may translate into a higher points tally and a better league position.
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Historical analysis shows that Premier League clubs that miss out on European competition often rebound with stronger league performances the following season.
Points and placing set to improve
Across 11 comparable seasons since 2008/09 where a ‘big six’ side participated in Europe one year and not the next, ten of those teams improved their point total and climbed the table, achieving an average gain of 16 points and a near‑five‑place rise.
Liverpool were the sole exception, slipping from 58 points and sixth place to 52 points and eighth in 2011/12.
Chelsea’s recent history mirrors this trend. After a turbulent 2015/16 season under Jose Mourinho’s departure and a brief Guus Hiddink spell, they finished 10th. The following campaign, Antonio Conte added 43 points, securing the league title with 93 points.
In the 2025/26 season, Chelsea again finished 10th after a managerial transition, setting the stage for a potential resurgence under Xabi Alonso.
Spurs have followed a similar trajectory. Under Mauricio Pochettino they improved by 19 points to finish sixth in 2023/24, while Ange Postecoglou’s side ended just ahead in fifth.
In 2022/23, Tottenham reached the Champions League round of 16 but slipped to eighth in the Premier League with 60 points. The subsequent season, without European commitments, they climbed to fifth with 66 points.
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Analyzing the 11 qualifying sequences, the average uplift was 16 points, with seven of the teams finishing in the top four the following season.
While the absence of European competition is just one factor, it often coincides with natural improvement after an underperforming campaign, managerial changes, and significant spending.
This season, both Chelsea and Spurs will schedule fewer matches, allowing more focused training weeks and reducing the need for squad rotation.
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Chelsea title challenge?
Whether Chelsea can contend for the title depends on several variables, including Alonso’s tactical impact, the integration of experienced signings, and the fitness of key players such as Morgan Rogers and Cole Palmer.
Conversely, Spurs’ prospects hinge on De Zerbi’s system, James Maddison’s return to full fitness, and the influence of new defensive and midfield acquisitions.
Historical precedent suggests that missed European obligations can provide a competitive edge, as illustrated by Manchester United’s 40‑game season improvement that secured a Champions League berth.
Thus, the upcoming campaign offers both clubs a unique opportunity to leverage reduced fixture congestion and the lessons of past resurgences.