Europeans’ doubts over a viable EU future could empower the far right, study warns

Half of Europeans cannot imagine a credible path to a stronger European Union, creating an “imagination gap” that could cede the political initiative to nostalgic far-right forces, according to a major new study by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

The report draws on 5,834 AI-moderated interviews conducted in Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland, alongside desk research covering 15 EU member states. It identifies four broad public attitudes.

Four distinct attitudes

About one in five respondents hold a “positive” view and some see crises as an opportunity for renewal. In most countries, however, the largest group is “negative,” seeing Europe as being in decline. Roughly one-third are “uncertain,” supporting greater European cooperation while doubting that leaders can deliver it, while about one in ten are “disconnected.”

Although EU leaders have described recent shocks—the war in Ukraine, energy turmoil and US unpredictability—as Europe’s “independence moment” in the European Commission’s 2026 Work Programme, public opinion has yet to reflect that vision.

The ECFR study finds that 68% describe present-day Europe in terms of deterioration or “lost normality,” compared with 12% who speak of awakening or renewal.

Nearly three-quarters say Europe is handling its greatest challenges poorly, blaming national governments for failures twice as often as EU institutions.

What drives uncertainty

Among the “uncertain” group—the second-largest at roughly one-third of respondents—the main concerns include slow European decision-making, perceived double standards and concessions to more powerful states, and fears linked to war, dependence on the US and the growing strength of the far right.

The authors warn that people who cannot picture a believable future may become receptive to narratives that present the past as a solution for tomorrow. That dynamic, they say, is helping far-right parties that currently lead opinion polls in several countries.

To address the problem, pro-European leaders should draw on “future nostalgia”: not a desire to return to a bygone era, but a renewed sense that a better future was once within reach.

As debates about Europe increasingly unfold through domestic issues such as migration, climate change and the cost of living, the report says its future will be decided in national elections, where “uncertain” voters hold the balance of power.

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