F1 Season Restarts: Can Anyone Overhaul Kimi Antonelli’s Early Lead?

Kimi Antonelli celebrates his win earlier this season in Shanghai, China.

One frequent criticism of Formula One is how predictable it can feel. Races are often settled in the opening laps or by the two‑thirds mark, and championships can sometimes be locked up well before the season ends.

Yet predictability isn’t absolute. Just two years ago, many fans expected 2026 to be a procession toward Max Verstappen’s sixth straight title.

Now, with the season restarting at the Dutch Grand Prix after the summer break, the question is whether Antonelli’s advantage can be overcome. Is it already a foregone conclusion that the 20‑year‑old Italian sensation will claim his first of what could be many championships?

The schedule offers rivals a glimmer of hope. Because of adjustments made after the Iran conflict, the campaign is still short of its midpoint; the Dutch Grand Prix is race 12 of 23.

Since the current points structure—25 for a win, then 18, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1—was introduced in 2010, the lead has changed hands in the second half of the season in seven of the sixteen campaigns that followed.

• 2010: At the halfway mark, Lewis Hamilton led with 145 points, ahead of Jenson Button (133), Mark Webber (128) and Sebastian Vettel (121). The lead swapped several times in the following weeks. With one race remaining, Fernando Alonso (246) overtook Webber (238), Vettel (231) and Hamilton (222) to take the top spot. Vettel then won the final race to surpass Alonso—whose Ferrari erred strategically—and Webber, who finished seventh and eighth.
• 2012: After ten of twenty races, Fernando Alonso (154) led Mark Webber (120) and Sebastian Vettel (110). Two races later, Alonso’s advantage over Lewis Hamilton had grown to 37 points, with Kimi Räikkönen just a point behind and Vettel another point back. Vettel then won four consecutive races to overtake Alonso and held on through a title fight that went to the last race.
• 2014: Nico Rosberg held a 29‑point lead with seven races remaining, but Lewis Hamilton rattled off five straight victories to seize the advantage, which he kept through the season’s uncommon double‑points finale.
• 2016: Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton engaged in a season‑long battle, with Hamilton ahead by six points at the halfway stage and Rosberg ultimately prevailing by five.
• 2017: Sebastian Vettel led Lewis Hamilton by a single point at the midway point, but Hamilton launched a winning streak and secured the championship with two races to go.
• 2021: Max Verstappen claimed his first title in controversial fashion on the final lap, benefitting from fresh tyres and a restart that placed him alongside Lewis Hamilton.
• 2025: Lando Norris displaced his teammate Oscar Piastri and resisted a late surge from Max Verstappen to capture the championship.

The sobering reality for Antonelli’s challengers—and for anyone hoping for a tight battle—is that his lead mirrors the pattern seen in nine other seasons, when Vettel (2011, 2013), Hamilton (2015, 2018, 2019, 2020) and Verstappen (2022, 2023, 2024) pulled away from the field.

Where They Stand

Ahead of the Dutch Grand Prix, Antonelli holds 219 points. Lewis Hamilton, enjoying a revival after four lacklustre seasons, sits second but trails by a full 50 points.

More concerning, none of the drivers behind Antonelli have demonstrated the consistency needed to turn this into a genuine contest. Hamilton has recorded his first victory since switching teams last year, yet the Ferraris driven by him and fourth‑placed Charles Leclerc still appear unable to match the Mercedes pairing of Antonelli and third‑placed George Russell—who has suffered some bad fortune this season. Moreover, we cannot count on Russell suddenly outpacing his teammate to create a Hamilton‑Rosberg‑style intra‑team duel, or a Norris‑Piastri showdown like last year.

Defending champion Lando Norris lies 91 points adrift despite his recent win in Hungary, while his McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri sits seventh after a string of mishaps all season.

The championship is Antonelli’s to lose, but it is not yet secured. In only his second F1 season, the young driver has already made a pair of costly mistakes in his last five outings: he damaged his car in an ill‑judged tussle with teammate George Russell at Barcelona, and later clipped a curb at Silverstone, causing further damage.

The wildcard for the second half is four‑time champion Max Verstappen. He trails by 110 points after a dismal start for Red Bull, yet he has stood on the podium in the last two races. Last year, with ten rounds remaining, he was 97 points behind Norris and finished just two points adrift. Overturning a 95‑point deficit in ten races is comparable to overturning a 123‑point gap over thirteen events.

How To Watch

Apple TV provides live Formula One coverage, offering feeds that let fans follow a single driver or tune into Sky Sports, where the popular “grid walk” sees Martin Brundle interviewing team personnel amid celebrity encounters that range from engaging to hilariously awkward. On Friday, practice begins at 6:30 a.m. ET, followed by qualifying for the weekend’s sprint race at 10:30 a.m. ET. Saturday’s sprint race starts at 6:00 a.m. ET, with qualifying for the Grand Prix at 10:00 a.m. ET. The main event gets underway at 9:00 a.m. ET on Sunday.

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