Far-Right Advance in German State Resonates Across Europe

When a far-right party secured a decisive triumph in a small eastern German state on Sunday, the shockwaves reverberated from London to Paris. Rarely has a regional election outcome carried such profound implications for the future of European democracy.

This was no ordinary European nation; it was Germany, a country that has relentlessly marginalized far-right political movements since the devastation of Nazism. Rather than being an anomaly, this result represents the latest milestone in a steady decade-long progression that has propelled the far right ever closer to the center of European power.

With elections looming across the continent next year, the resounding success of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) could foreshadow further far-right victories, according to analysts, while also providing a blueprint for how such momentum can be generated. Its populist, anti-immigration platform mirrors the messaging of nationalist leaders in Britain, France, Italy, and Spain, where voters share many of the same grievances found in Germany.

French voters will choose a new president next spring. Elections are due in Spain by August, and in Italy by the end of next year. Far-right candidates are surging in all three nations, threatening incumbents held responsible for systemic economic failures.

“Developed Europe is experiencing a form of sophisticated state failure,” said Mujtaba Rahman, a European specialist at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy. “Governments are incapable of addressing cost-of-living concerns and are failing to deliver for their voters.”

In Germany, escalating prices and high unemployment propelled the AfD to more than double the vote share of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s center-right incumbent party.

Because the AfD appeared to narrowly miss an outright majority based on near-final results, it may ultimately fail to govern Saxony-Anhalt, where the election took place. Rival parties have vowed against forming a coalition with the AfD, whose leaders have employed Nazi slogans and downplayed the Holocaust. German intelligence designates the AfD as a “suspected” extremist group, partly because the party portrays Germans with immigrant backgrounds as second-class citizens.

Nevertheless, the outcome could significantly weaken Mr. Merz if members of his party hold him responsible for the loss, at a time when Germany’s leadership in Europe was already waning. Mr. Merz’s standing has deteriorated so severely that political analysts openly discuss his potential ouster, a once-unthinkable scenario in German politics.

“It is a major concern for Europe,” said Mr. Rahman, who formerly served in the European Union’s civil service. “A weakened Germany, with a chancellor struggling domestically and forced to confront internal problems, is detrimental and will ultimately diminish Europe’s capacity to address its challenges.”

Concerns among centrists regarding France, where President Emmanuel Macron will step down next spring, are equally acute. Marine Le Pen, the candidate of France’s primary far-right party, the National Rally, holds a commanding lead in first-round polls and has even placed first in recent second-round matchups. This places her closer to power than at any point in her 14-year quest for the presidency.

A far-right government in Paris, Mr. Rahman noted, would destabilize the European Union in a manner no other national election could, given France’s size, nuclear arsenal, and foundational role in the European project. It might also dismantle the so-called cordon sanitaire, under which mainstream parties in France, as in Germany, have refused to enter governing coalitions with the far right.

“In both countries, the antifascist front that prevailed since the end of the Second World War appears on the brink of collapse,” said Philippe Marlière, a professor of French and European politics at University College London.

In Spain, analysts suggest the far-right Vox Party could force its way into the next coalition government, as the current Socialist-led administration is besmirched by corruption scandals and an immigration crisis. In Britain, the governing Labour Party removed its unpopular prime minister, Keir Starmer, in July in an effort to regain traction against a rapidly rising far-right party, Reform U.K.

Still, the ascent of the far right is not inevitable. Reform’s momentum was abruptly halted by a series of financial scandals involving its firebrand leader, Nigel Farage. This has provided the Labour government, now under a new prime minister, Andy Burnham, with unexpected political breathing room.

In April, Hungary’s far-right Prime Minister Viktor Orban was ousted from power after 16 years, a casualty of widespread perceptions that his government was corrupt, inattentive to the economy, and needlessly antagonistic toward the European Union. The defeat of his Fidesz party offered mainstream politicians hope that the far right is also vulnerable.

The degree to which mainstream politicians “need to worry” about the AfD’s success, said Timothy Bale, a politics professor at Queen Mary University of London, “will depend on whether, if it assumes office, it behaves relatively normally, and whether it can govern competently.”

Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, whose populist party has neofascist origins, offers a playbook for other like-minded leaders. Having moderated her stance on issues like Ukraine and the European Union, she recently celebrated her government becoming the longest continuously serving in the history of the Italian Republic.

Ms. Meloni is well-positioned to extend that run when she faces voters next summer. However, the rising prominence of a rival further to her right, Roberto Vannacci, has prompted her to harden her positions on issues such as immigration. Ms. Meloni heavily criticized Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, following a sudden influx of migrants from Morocco into a Spanish territory in late July.

Mr. Farage risks a similar dynamic in Britain. Rupert Lowe, a disaffected party member, defected to establish an even more right-wing faction that is siphoning votes from Mr. Farage. Given this competition and the escalating questions surrounding Reform’s finances, Professor Bale said it was difficult to see how Mr. Farage could amass enough votes to form a government.

In France, Ms. Le Pen’s path to power is more credible. Her poll numbers are more than double those of the leading centrist, Edouard Philippe, or the leading far-left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

The pivotal question in France is whether Mr. Philippe or anyone else can rally sufficient support from the center right and left to emerge as the consensus mainstream candidate. In a second round of voting, analysts stated, such a candidate would stand a chance of defeating Ms. Le Pen.

However, if France’s center remains fractured, as it currently does, that would give Mr. Mélenchon an opportunity to reach the second round, likely facing Ms. Le Pen. In that scenario—which France’s political establishment views as a nightmare—Ms. Le Pen would be the odds-on favorite.

Like other far-right leaders in Europe, Ms. Le Pen has kept her distance from President Trump. But she and other populist candidates could still be affected by him, according to analysts. Mr. Trump remains deeply unpopular in Europe and is rapidly losing popularity in the United States as well.

The lesson that Europe’s beleaguered centrists hope voters will draw from America’s turmoil, Mr. Rahman said, is that “if you experiment with non-mainstream parties, you risk making mistakes.”

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