The reigning top money-earner in North American racing headlines the opening day at the newly revamped Belmont Park. Forever Young seeks to bolster his extraordinary $31.75 million career bankroll in the 108th edition of the $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). Despite a lengthy layoff since late March and a trans-Pacific journey exceeding 6,700 miles from Japan, the 3-5 morning-line favorite has consistently navigated formidable obstacles throughout his career.
“He’s had a big spell since the Dubai World Cup,” said Hiroshi Ando, racing manager for owner Susumu Fujita. “He’s been training since early August, and his condition is really good. He knows how to travel on a long flight, and he’s really good at it.”
The caliber of competition required to unseat the champion is immense. Compounding the challenge, two rival runners were withdrawn on Tuesday: Banishing and Chunk of Gold, both priced at 12-1 on the morning line.
“That is a very, very nice horse,” said Gustavo Rodriguez, who trains 4-1 second choice Phileas Fogg. “He can run anywhere. He’s been traveling all around the world, and any time he runs, he runs good.”
On Tuesday, Forever Young delivered a routine five-furlong drill in 1:02.17 at Belmont Park under regular rider Ryusei Sakai.
“He enjoyed the track and handled it well,” Sakai said. “It seems like he’s very happy to run here, so I’m quite happy for that.”
Below is a comprehensive horse-by-horse analysis of the Jockey Club Gold Cup, detailing trainers, riders, and morning-line odds:
1 BAEZA (Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 9-2)
Baeza is a talented horse frequently undone by his own poor breaks, as he routinely departs from the gate four or five lengths behind the field. A deep closer, he is 0-for-3 at the 1 1/4-mile distance and has finished eighth or worse in eight of his last nine starts. However, if he replicates his commanding performance from last autumn’s Pennsylvania Derby (G1)—where he defeated Magnitude by 2 1/4 lengths—he could pose a serious threat.
“He trains brilliantly and you’d think he’s as good as there is, but we just have to solve the fact that he just doesn’t break good,” co-owner Lee Searing said. “He’s probably one of the top four horses in the country, but he just hasn’t gotten it done. We’re going to continue running against the best horses in the country, and one of these days he’s going to get it done.”
Betting verdict: Use underneath
2 STARS AND STRIPES (Bill Mott, John Velazquez, 15-1)
While Bill Mott’s other contender recently won at 1 3/4 miles, making distance a non-issue, he simply lacks the class of graded-stakes runners. He has never competed at the highest level, and despite being a strong closer, his speed figures do not support a victory.
Betting verdict: Toss
3 CHUNK OF GOLD (Ethan West, Jaime Torres, 12-1) Scratched
4 PHILEAS FOGG (Gustavo Rodriguez, Kendrick Carmouche, 4-1)
The frontrunner has been preparing exceptionally well, highlighted by a dominant 10-length victory in the 10-furlong Suburban Stakes (G2) with a career-best speed figure. “I think that was probably his best race ever,” Rodriguez said. “We love the way he’s coming into this race, so we just hope for the best.” If Forever Young fails to deliver his best, this 6-year-old gelding stands as the most likely candidate to cause an upset.
Betting verdict: Win contender
5 BANISHING (David Jacobson, Joel Rosario, 12-1) Scratched
6 RENDER JUDGMENT (Kenny McPeek, Manny Franco, 20-1)
This 4-year-old colt is far beyond his current capabilities, a mistake McPeek is known to occasionally make. He has finished 0-for-5 in graded company—placing fifth, eighth, fifth, 17th, and fifth—while being beaten by a cumulative 80 1/2 lengths. His finest career moment was a narrow victory at 1 3/16 miles in a non-winners-of-1 allowance race. He has no chance here.
Betting verdict: Toss
7 FOREVER YOUNG (Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai, 3-5)
This extraordinary athlete has proven his excellence across a remarkable 15-race career spanning the globe. He has won 11 times, never finished worse than third, and amassed an astronomical $31,758,590—a total surpassed only by Romantic Warrior ($35.4 million). Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) hero boasts four victories at 1 1/4 miles against elite company, and Friday’s opponents do not match the caliber of horses he has previously conquered. A powerful closing drive should see him surpass pacesetter Phileas Fogg around the turn before pulling away comfortably.
Betting verdict: The pick
The picks: 1 Forever Young 2 Phileas Fogg 3 Baeza