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    Fed’s Split Rate Decision Tightens Pressure on Bitcoin’s Market Recovery Ahead of December Hike The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.75%‑4% during its Oct. 28 meeting, a 10‑2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, urging an immediate 25‑basis‑point increase. Market analysts quoted odds of roughly an 83‑88% chance of a December hiking decision, as the market had previously priced in a hold. Bitcoin fell to $80,500 before rallying above $81,000, approaching the approximately $81,500 aggregate cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, per Glassnode estimates. The hold and Warsh’s message The committee affirmed robust growth and reaffirmed its commitment to bring inflation back to the 2% target. In his press conference, Chair Kevin Warsh noted that credit conditions had tightened, spreads had widened, and higher rates were impacting technology investment, notably AI. Warsh refrained from labeling overall financial conditions as tight, indicating the Fed is prepared to endure additional market stress before adjusting policy. The 10‑year Treasury yield stood at about 5.04% on the decision day, while the two‑year was near 4.78%; the University of Michigan’s final October sentiment index recorded 48. Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, references this week’s Magnificent Seven earnings, which could determine whether AI capital expenditures are turning into revenue, while highlighting liquidity and financial conditions as key drivers for December policy. He notes that the easing of the Strait of Hormuz situation following the midterms could potentially lower oil prices, reduce inflation pressure, and ease rate expectations. The $81,500 test for Bitcoin Glassnode’s Oct. 28 report characterized the market as one where long‑term holders control roughly 4 million BTC, purchased between $85,000 and $118,000, reflecting sell pressure as prices recover. These coins remain distinct from sell orders, as holders who recoup breakeven may or may not liquidate. Approximately 4.3% of the supply recently moved between $84,000 and $85,000, a shift largely attributed to an internal wallet transfer in November 2025. Glassnode’s supply‑price threads show Bitcoin repeatedly meeting resistance around the $84,000 to $85,000 range. Since the Oct. 24 correction, roughly $3.4 million of Binance bids remain at $80,000. The biggest accumulation cluster sits between $78,000 and $79,000, with about $42 million—up from around $24 million in mid‑October. The True Market Mean is near $77,900, while short‑term holder cost basis hovers around $75,800. Reluctant sellers, hesitant buyers On Oct. 22, on‑chain data revealed approximately $3.7 billion of realized profit and $1.4 billion of realized loss, with Glassnode attributing the surge primarily to wallet‑to‑wallet transfers among related entities. Entity‑adjusted profit taking approached $260 million per day, roughly half its September maximum. The biggest daily net realized loss around Oct. 24 was about $27 million, compared with about $630 million at the August trough, while wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC emerged as the most persistent accumulators in October. The 30‑day realized volatility sits near 25%, well under the 95th percentile of readings since 2015. The trend indicates sellers growing reluctant while buyers re‑entering cautiously. Farside Investors report that spot Bitcoin ETF net flows were negative $487.2 million between Oct. 22 and Oct. 27. How much is priced A simplified model treats December as a hold or a single 25‑basis‑point increase. At an 87% probability, roughly 21.75 basis points of the hike are already embedded in expectations. A revision to 50% would eliminate roughly 9.25 basis points, whereas a shift to 95% would add about 2 basis points. A more significant market impact may stem from upcoming revisions to the 2027 rate path, as reflected in the December projections. Brendan Ma, head of investment strategy at the Arbitrum Foundation, views the hold with two dissenting calls—supporting a live December decision with the majority of effect already embedded. He notes that tokenized equities have risen roughly 12% in the past month, while tokenized Treasuries have contracted despite the 10‑year yield hovering near 5%. “Capital on-chain is moving to where it can be used, not just where it’s paid to wait.” RWA.xyz data indicate that the distributed value of tokenized stocks has risen approximately 17.8% over the past 30 days. Where Bitcoin goes from here Should PCE, GDP, and the November 6 payrolls cool inflation expectations, yields ease, and ETF inflows resume, Bitcoin could climb past $81,500 and sustain closes above $85,000. The next key level is $87,000‑$87,500, where overhang supply increases. Given the 30‑day volatility near 25%, the one‑standard‑deviation range spans roughly $74,100 to $87,900 through Dec. 9 starting from $81,000. Overshooting inflation could lift Treasury yields, trigger ETF withdrawals, and drive the market lower, potentially below the $78,000‑$79,000 bid range and near the $77,900 True Market Mean. A downturn would gain prominence if entity‑adjusted realized losses widened while redemptions continued. Bitcoin’s selling remains subdued while buying pressure is thin, and the upcoming PCE, jobs, and CPI releases will reveal which trend prevails as the Dec. 8‑9 meeting approaches.

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