Four Critical Issues Defining Israel’s Upcoming Election

As Israel prepares to head to the polls on October 27, voters will weigh competing visions for the country’s future across four pivotal domains: accountability for the October 7 failures, the transformation of national security doctrine, the deepening divide over military conscription and religious identity, and a surging cost of living that persists despite macroeconomic growth.

Accountability for October 7

Public demand for an independent state commission of inquiry into the intelligence and operational failures surrounding Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack remains a central campaign flashpoint. The assault, the deadliest day in Israel’s history, killed more than 1,200 people and inflicted a collective trauma that continues to reverberate through the nation’s politics and society.

While Israel has historically established commissions of inquiry after national crises, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has resisted calls for an independent panel. Instead, it has proposed a bipartisan commission whose members would be politically appointed—a framework opposition leader Yair Lapid dismissed as designed to “whitewash” responsibility and obstruct a genuine investigation.

Netanyahu’s chief rival, former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, has pledged to establish an independent inquiry, calling it essential to “prevent the next disaster.” The prime minister faces mounting scrutiny over allegations he disregarded specific advance warnings, including reported intelligence from the UAE, and over his government’s longstanding policy of allowing Qatari funds to flow to Hamas in Gaza.

Future Security Strategy

For decades, Israel’s security doctrine rested on three pillars: superior intelligence, deterrence, and short, decisive wars. The October 7 attack shattered that paradigm. The current government has embraced protracted, multi-front military campaigns, maintaining “security zones” in Gaza, southern Lebanon, and Syria while conducting near-daily operations in the occupied West Bank.

Israel has also engaged in two direct confrontations with Iran and struck Yemen’s Houthi rebels, stretching the military across multiple theaters. The sustained mobilization of tens of thousands of reservists has exacted a heavy personal and economic toll, even as military leaders warn of critical manpower shortages.

“We have gone from a logic of deterrence and prosperity between wars to a society that lives permanently by the sword,” observed Ofer Shelah, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). The extended conflicts have also damaged Israel’s international standing, drawing sharp criticism over the conduct of the war in Gaza, where Palestinian health authorities report a death toll exceeding 74,000. Friction with Washington has surfaced publicly, including a reported profane rebuke from President Donald Trump over Israeli strikes in Lebanon that threatened ceasefire negotiations.

Religion, Identity, and Conscription

With the military facing acute personnel shortages, the decades-long debate over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions has escalated into a broader contest over Israel’s identity. Ultra-Orthodox parties, backed by Netanyahu’s Likud and its far-right coalition allies, seek to preserve exemptions allowing religious students to forego service.

Opposition parties vow to end the exemptions and refuse to sit in any government that includes ultra-Orthodox factions. Eisenkot, who lost a son in the Gaza war, has sharply condemned the current government for “promoting evasion of duty without shame.” Netanyahu has struggled to navigate the issue, recently criticizing the arrest of ultra-Orthodox draft evaders while insisting those not engaged in full-time Torah study must enlist.

The friction has spilled into street protests, including a demonstration where ultra-Orthodox protesters stormed the home of Israel’s military police chief. Days before the Knesset’s dissolution, the outgoing coalition advanced measures promoting gender segregation in public spaces and passed legislation enshrining the primacy of Torah study—moves supporters say reinforce the state’s Jewish character, but critics warn erode democratic norms and increase religious influence over public life.

Surging Cost of Living

While security dominates headlines, economic anxiety remains a potent force for many voters. Despite robust GDP growth—more than doubling since 2000—and historically low unemployment, Israelis contend with one of the highest costs of living in the developed world. Median wages trail the OECD average, squeezing household budgets.

Economists attribute the disparity to structural distortions: chronic housing shortages, trade barriers, and concentrated market power in key sectors. The war has compounded these pressures; the defense budget has doubled since 2023, placing mounting strain on public finances and forcing difficult trade-offs between military spending and domestic relief.

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