Fuel Shortages Across Russia Undermine Domestic Stability Amid Ongoing Conflict

Alyona Sadovnikova first encountered gasoline shortages in mid-June when a service station informed her that fuel was only available to those with ration coupons. “I was horrified,” she said in a telephone interview, drawing comparisons to the scarcity of the Soviet era.

By the following week, Ms. Sadovnikova was waiting 18 hours to refuel in Irkutsk, a city in eastern Siberia located nearly 3,000 miles from the Ukrainian border.

The crisis stems from escalating Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Frequent attacks on refineries deep within Russian territory have forced several major facilities to undergo emergency repairs and shut down operations.

These disruptions have triggered fuel shortages unseen by many Russian citizens in decades. What began in occupied Crimea in May has since migrated into mainland Russia and reached as far as Siberia.

The severity of the shortage has forced an unusual admission from Russian officials: the world’s third-largest oil producer is exploring the possibility of importing oil to stabilize the market. Furthermore, authorities in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, a critical hub for oil exports, announced on Friday that they are suspending gasoline sales to individual consumers.

These mounting queues serve as a visible manifestation of how the war in Ukraine is impacting daily life in Russia, posing a direct challenge to President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to maintain domestic order. Tensions have escalated to the point of physical altercations among motorists stuck in long lines.

“The gasoline shortages are more than an economic issue; they are a test of the government’s ability to manage a crisis that disrupts the very fabric of daily life,” noted Ilya Grashchenkov, a Moscow-based political analyst.

According to data compiled by independent Russian media, only two regions—the sparsely populated Chukotka and Kalmykia—have avoided fuel restrictions. In many areas, crowdsourced websites have emerged to help drivers track available supplies. The shortage is also impacting the labor market; according to the newspaper Kommersant, up to 20 percent of taxi drivers have opted to stay home due to the difficulty of refueling.

The regions surrounding Moscow appear particularly vulnerable. Both the Moscow Oil Refinery and a major facility in Tatarstan, which together account for roughly 10 percent of Russia’s gasoline capacity, have reportedly ceased operations following Ukrainian strikes.

On Wednesday, congestion was visible on the major highway connecting Moscow and St. Petersburg, where motorists formed long lines at the few remaining operational stations.

For a generation raised during Russia’s era of booming oil production, these scenes are unprecedented. Boris Nadezhdin, a 63-year-old opposition politician, noted that while the older generation—who remembers the empty shelves of the Soviet collapse—may be mentally prepared, the situation comes as a profound shock to Russians in their 20s and 30s.

Despite government subsidies intended to stabilize prices, costs are climbing. In late June, the average price per liter rose by 1.6 percent. In Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, customers reported prices jumping from 70 rubles ($0.90) to 100 rubles ($1.30) per liter at independent stations. While state-owned Rosneft stations maintain lower prices, they are plagued by massive queues.

In southern regions, the impact is stark. Professional driver Alexander reported that many independent stations in the Krasnodar and Rostov regions sit idle, marked only by “out of gas” signs. In Krasnodar, deputy governor Evgeny Pergun confirmed to the local legislature that at least one-third of the region’s gas stations have closed.

The shortage has also prompted dark humor online, with some social media users joking that ride-hailing apps might soon offer horse-drawn carriages as an alternative to cars.

The situation is most acute in eastern Siberia and the Far East. In the Irkutsk region, the lines are so extensive that Governor Igor Kobzev has declared a state of high alert, and authorities have promised to provide portable toilets along highways for waiting motorists.

For Ms. Sadovnikova, the ordeal was physically and mentally draining. After joining a queue at 11 p.m. on a Friday with her husband and infant child, she did not receive fuel until 5 p.m. the following day. “It was nerve-wracking and exhausting,” she said, noting that she spent the following day sleeping to recover from the stress.

While Energy Minister Alexander Novak insisted in a recent conference that the shortages are localized and being addressed, market data suggests a broader systemic issue. Analysts estimate that Ukrainian drone strikes have disabled between 25 and 33 percent of Russia’s oil refining capacity, roughly 2.2 million barrels per day.

“Restoring that capacity will require several major plants to come back online,” said Ronald P. Smith of Emerging Markets Oil and Gas Consulting Partners. “The timeline depends heavily on the extent of the damage sustained.”

Reports suggest the government is even considering a rollback of a 2013 ban on lower-quality, high-sulfur gasoline to meet demand. While the Kremlin typically avoids acknowledging domestic instability, President Putin addressed the issue during a recent interview, characterizing the situation as a “certain deficit” rather than a crisis, and blaming Ukrainian strikes for attempting to undermine Russian society.

Political analysts suggest that the disconnect between official claims of economic strength and the reality of long lines at fuel pumps could eventually erode public support. As Mr. Nadezhdin observed, as citizens struggle with daily necessities, the discrepancy between government rhetoric and lived reality may begin to fuel growing suspicion toward the leadership.

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