Gaza Ceasefire Anniversary: Unmet Promises and Ongoing Conflict One Year Later

One year after former U.S. President Donald Trump declared a ceasefire in Gaza, most long-term commitments from the October 10, 2025 agreement remain unfulfilled, casting doubt over the truce’s lasting impact.

The deal, brokered under Trump’s administration, initially brought moments of progress—particularly around hostage releases and temporary stability—but many of its broader objectives have stalled or failed entirely.

– Hostage Release and Quiet for Israel –

In the immediate aftermath of the ceasefire, Hamas fulfilled one of its key obligations by releasing all 20 surviving hostages taken during its October 7, 2023 attack—the deadliest day in modern Israeli history. The captivity had deeply affected Israeli public opinion, making the return of prisoners a central demand for Tel Aviv.

For now, southern Israel has experienced relative calm along the Gaza frontier, with no major rocket fire reported from Hamas in the past year. Analysts attribute this lull partly to Hamas’s depleted arsenal following extensive Israeli aerial and ground operations that left much of Gaza devastated.

To help safeguard the truce, the U.S. military established a joint command center with regional partners near the Gaza-Israel border, tasked with monitoring compliance and coordinating responses to potential violations.

– No Full Withdrawal Despite Reduced Operations –

While Israel scaling back some offensive actions, it continues to carry out near-daily strikes across Gaza. According to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry—figures often cited by the United Nations—over 1,450 Palestinians have been killed in these post-ceasefire attacks.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, currently navigating a tight electoral climate, maintains that completing the elimination of those behind the October 7 massacre remains non-negotiable. Speaking on the anniversary, he claimed responsibility for the deaths of approximately 4,000 out of an estimated 6,000 individuals linked to Hamas.

Though the original agreement permitted Israeli forces to maintain control over 53% of Gaza, recent military activity suggests their presence now spans nearly 70% of the territory, signaling a de facto expansion contrary to expectations of de-escalation.

– Hamas Survives, Still Armed and Active –

The second stage of the ceasefire plan envisioned a shift toward Palestinian self-governance through a technocratic administration. In line with this, Ali Shaath was named leader of the newly formed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), supported internationally as a neutral body.

Hamas officially announced in July its disbandment as a governing entity and transferred administrative duties to the NCAG. However, analysts observe that the group retains firm control over security matters within Gaza, while Shaath has largely remained out of public view.

Later that month, Hamas selected Khalil al-Hayya as its new political chief and signaled intentions to dissolve its armed wing—a move praised by Trump as a historic breakthrough. Yet skepticism persists among Israeli officials, who insist on concrete, verifiable steps toward full disarmament before considering reciprocal measures such as troop withdrawals.

As of yet, neither side has honored these conditions: Hamas has not dismantled its weapons stockpile, nor has Israel begun pulling back its forces.

– Reconstruction Efforts Remain Stalled –

Overseeing post-conflict recovery fell to a new international initiative led by the so-called “Board of Peace,” backed by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and UN envoy Nickolay Mladenov, appointed as “Gaza High Representative.”

Despite Trump pledging $10 billion in funding earlier this year—and additional contributions promised by Gulf nations—there is no confirmed disbursement of funds toward rebuilding efforts in Gaza. A draft $2.45 billion recovery strategy was presented at a September board meeting but faces delays amid funding uncertainty and logistical challenges.

With humanitarian needs mounting and essential infrastructure still damaged or destroyed, many observers warn that without urgent action, reconstruction promises may become another set of unmet expectations in a conflict marked by broken accords.

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