GBP/JPY Weekly Technical Outlook: Consolidation Prevails as Key Levels Define Direction

The GBP/JPY pair entered a sideways trading phase last week, leaving the initial bias neutral for the current session. On the downside, a decisive break below 212.36 would confirm that the rebound from 210.43 has concluded as a corrective move, paving the way for a deeper decline toward the 211.23 support level. Conversely, a break above 215.59 would signal a resumption of the recovery from 210.43, targeting a retest of the 216.58 high.

From a broader perspective, there is no definitive evidence of a trend reversal yet. The long-term uptrend could still extend toward the 61.8% projection level of 220.90—calculated from the 2022 low (148.93) to the 2024 high (208.09), projected from the 184.35 low—should upside momentum resume. However, a sustained break below the 55-week EMA (currently at 207.28) would argue that a medium-term downtrend has commenced, targeting the 184.35 support level.

In the very long-term view, the uptrend originating from the 2011 low (116.83) remains intact. The next major target sits at the 2007 high of 251.09. This bullish scenario remains the preferred outlook as long as the 55-month EMA (currently at 187.79) continues to hold.

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