GBP/USD Faces Bearish Pressure Ahead of Key US and UK Data Releases

Bearish view

Bullish view

The GBP/USD exchange rate has pulled back substantially over the past few days, slipping from this month’s high of 1.3558 to the current level of 1.3291. Heightened volatility is expected ahead of crucial US macroeconomic data and the forthcoming interest‑rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.

Macro Data and Interest Rate Decisions

The pair has remained under pressure as investors digest several key data releases. Last week the Office for National Statistics released mixed figures on jobs, inflation and retail sales. One report showed that inflation fell in June, missing forecasts for three straight months, although it remains above the 2% target. Another report indicated that retail sales rose in June.

The Bank of England is set to announce its interest‑rate decision on Thursday. While Governor Andrew Bailey and the MPC are widely expected to hold rates steady, a hawkish bias cannot be ruled out.

Later today the GBP/USD will react to several important US data points. The Conference Board is due to publish its consumer confidence survey, with economists forecasting a rise to 92.1 from 91.2. Consumer spending, the largest component of the US economy, makes this figure particularly relevant. Additionally, the United States will release its latest house‑price index.

Most significantly, the Federal Reserve will deliver its interest‑rate decision on Wednesday. Analysts anticipate that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range, but may signal that further hikes are possible later this year as inflation stays above target.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that GBP/USD peaked at 1.3558 earlier this month before resuming a downtrend as the US dollar regained strength. The pair fell to a low of 1.3293, its lowest level since July 2, and continues to trade beneath the 50‑day exponential moving average.

The Relative Strength Index has slipped below the neutral 50 level, indicating that bearish momentum is persisting. Consequently, the pair could slide toward the key support zone around 1.3150, which marked the low on June 24.

Crispus Nyaga is a Technical Analyst at DailyForex with more than eight years of experience as a financial analyst, coach, and trader. He specializes in technical analysis of major currency pairs and cryptocurrencies, using chart patterns, trend structure, and key indicators to frame trading scenarios for Forex and digital‑asset markets. Crispus has worked with well‑known brokers including ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFX, and his market commentary has appeared widely on platforms such as Seeking Alpha, InvestingCube, Capital.com, and Invezz.

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