GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Neutral Bias Dominates as Corrective Phase Extends

Last week’s extended decline suggests the advance from 1.3139 has completed a three-wave structure to 1.3675. With a temporary low established at 1.3334, the immediate bias shifts to neutral for consolidation. Any upside attempts are likely to be capped below the 1.3473 level, where former support has turned into resistance, setting the stage for another leg lower. A break below 1.3334 would target the 1.3272 support; a decisive breach there would pave the way for a retest of the 1.3139 low.

In the broader context, price action since 1.3867 represents a corrective pattern within the larger uptrend originating from the 2022 low at 1.0351. As long as the 1.3008 support holds, the medium-term outlook remains bullish, favoring an eventual break above 1.3867 to target the key 1.4248 resistance (2021 high). Conversely, a firm break of 1.3008 would signal a deeper correction toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.0351 to 1.3867 rally at 1.2524, increasing the risk of a bearish trend reversal.

From a long-term perspective, the outlook remains bearish provided the 1.4248/1.4480 resistance zone holds. This region coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the historic decline from 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.0351 (2022 low) at 1.4480. Under this scenario, the rally from 1.0351 is viewed merely as a correction within the multi-decade downtrend. However, a decisive break above the 1.4248/1.4480 zone would constitute a powerful signal of a long-term bullish reversal.

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