German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was facing mounting pressure Monday after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party secured a landslide victory in a regional election, potentially clearing the path for the country’s first right-wing populist state government since the Nazi era.
AfD, which Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has designated as an extremist group in certain regions of the country, narrowly missed an outright majority in Sunday’s election in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt.
Given Germany’s Nazi history, far-right movements have consistently faced intense scrutiny, with the other major parties maintaining a strict firewall against any cooperation. Unlike most countries in Europe, modern Germany has never seen a far-right or right-wing populist party lead a national, state, or major-city government.
Chancellor Merz, who leads the center-right Christian Democrats, rose to power pledging to weaken AfD but has been unable to fulfill that commitment.
AfD’s decisive win poses a significant distraction for Germany and for Merz at a moment when Europe confronts multiple challenges, including Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine, a suspected sabotage campaign targeting NATO nations, and complicated relations with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Far-right movements across Europe celebrated the outcome.
Merz likely to face blame for his party’s poor showing
Complicated coalition negotiations lie ahead, and AfD’s candidate for governor, Ulrich Siegmund, remains determined to become the first far-right head of a state government.
“I am telling you today that we must reclaim our old, safe, beautiful Germany. We proved that yesterday, and therefore this is the path we will now take together,” Siegmund told reporters in Berlin on Monday.
The vote significantly weakens the chancellor, who will be partly held accountable for his party’s historic defeat after it had governed the state for the past 24 years. Support for Merz’s CDU party collapsed by roughly half, while AfD more than doubled its share of the vote. The result could also energize AfD in additional state elections later this month.
Chancellor Merz is expected to address the public later on Monday following meetings with his party and government leaders.
AfD, recognized for its pro-Russian stance and radical anti-immigration positions, is the largest opposition party in Germany’s national parliament and is most powerful in the formerly communist and economically struggling east, where Saxony-Anhalt is situated.
Leading a state government would represent the greatest achievement for AfD in its 13-year history, arriving amid widespread frustration with a national government that has yet to convince voters it can revitalize the country’s sluggish economy.
Hard-left party could play a kingmaker role
While Siegmund has dismissed the prospect of an AfD minority government, his party could potentially govern with the hard-left BSW party, which captured 5.3% of the vote. The two parties share a Russia-friendly orientation and both oppose immigration, though they differ on several other policy areas.
On Monday, BSW’s lead candidate in the election, Thomas Schulze, reiterated his party’s willingness to help an AfD governor take office in the state parliament.
Forming a government that excludes AfD would only be feasible if all the other elected parties collaborated — CDU, Social Democrats, the Greens, the Left Party, and the BSW. However, a coalition of five partners would be highly unusual, exceptionally complex, and vulnerable to instability.
Another possibility is that newly elected lawmakers from other parties could defect to AfD. Only three additional members would be required to secure a governing majority.
“The task before us is a very clear mandate to form the government,” Siegmund stated, adding that his party would engage with all other new parliamentary factions and even individual lawmakers. “Our goal now is to build precisely this stable majority in the coming days and weeks.”
AfD previously won a state election but did not ultimately govern. That occurred two years ago in neighboring Thuringia, where a CDU governor took power with a minority government, though AfD fell considerably short of a majority there. Until now, Germany’s mainstream parties have upheld the so-called firewall, refusing to cooperate with AfD.
Jubilation from Musk and right-wing populists
Billionaire Elon Musk congratulated the party on its election victory with a “Well done!” on his online platform X.
Siegmund promptly thanked him for his support, replying in English: “If we take on responsibility here, I would very much welcome the opportunity for strong and constructive cooperation. Germany would then once again be a place worth investing in. Best regards from Saxony-Anhalt!”
President Trump shared a screenshot of the election projection on his “Truth Social” platform without comment.
Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev on X characterized the election outcome as a “historic win for the pragmatic AfD that will put migration under control.” In a separate post, Dmitriev stated that “AfD will restore Germany and Europe by leading the commons-sense approach that migrant-friendly, warmongering Biden-think EU politicians tried to eradicate.”
The leaders of right-wing populist parties in Spain and Portugal also congratulated AfD, according to the German news agency dpa.
The Polish prime minister offered a critical response. “In Poland, only idiots or traitors could rejoice the AfD triumph in Germany,” Donald Tusk wrote on X.
Among voters who did not support AfD, the reaction was one of profound dismay.
Horst Walter Boerner, from Magdeburg, expressed shock. He was a child during World War II and the Nazi era.
“It’s terrible for us,” he said, characterizing the election as “fear-driven.”
Boerner noted that AfD’s victory was foreseeable given the crowds it attracted during the campaign, but he asserted that “this should have never happened.”
AfD calls the result a signal for change
AfD captured 43.8% of the vote, more than double its performance five years ago in Saxony-Anhalt, west of Berlin.
That result far outpaced Merz’s party, which received 17.2% — losing approximately half its support — and secured 15 seats. The center-left Social Democrats garnered 9.3%, the Greens 8.9%, and the Left Party 8.6%, each winning eight seats. The BSW party took 5.3% and five seats.
Turnout was notably high at 77.8%. AfD appeared to have drawn substantial support from people who had not voted at all five years ago.
Alice Weidel, one of AfD’s two national leaders, praised the turnout and declared the result a signal for change.
“No chancellor before has been as unpopular as Friedrich Merz, who has become a major obstacle to Germany’s prosperous development,” she said.
“The people in this country no longer want business as usual when it comes to illegal immigration, open borders, skyrocketing crime rates among foreign nationals, refused deportations, and a disastrous energy policy.”
