Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) suffered heavy losses in Sunday’s regional elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, intensifying pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz to halt the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
The results mark a major setback for Merz and his party as voters increasingly question whether he can revive the economy and ease cost-of-living pressures.
Merz remains under pressure after a major setback
The defeats represent a serious blow to Merz and the CDU, many of whose voters have shifted toward the AfD amid doubts about the 70-year-old chancellor’s ability to restore economic growth and reduce household financial pressure.
Merz, who described the result as a “disaster”, is facing record-low approval ratings and growing demands that he resign after fewer than 17 months in office. He has signalled that he will remain in post and continue his reform agenda.
Despite his pledge to stay, Sunday’s losses have intensified questions about Merz’s standing within the CDU. The party’s result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania was its worst in a state election since the Federal Republic was founded in 1949.
Merz’s weakened position is significant in Germany, the European Union’s largest economy. His difficulties come as far-right parties gain ground across Europe, relations with the United States have become more strained and economic uncertainty shows no sign of receding.
AfD extends its electoral momentum
The AfD made major gains in both states and became the strongest party in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, more than doubling its 2021 result.
It was the second consecutive state election in which the AfD finished first, following its victory in Saxony-Anhalt earlier this month. The back-to-back wins strengthen its momentum ahead of federal elections due in 2029.
Recent national polling places the AfD at 29 percent, reflecting support for its pledges to remove people who have no legal right to remain in Germany, restore access to inexpensive Russian energy and promote socially conservative policies centred on the traditional family.
Most other major parties continue to exclude cooperation with the AfD through a political “firewall”. The party is therefore unlikely to join a government in either state, despite finishing first in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and third in Berlin.
Coalition-building becomes more complicated
As the AfD rises and voters divide among more parties, assembling stable governing majorities is becoming increasingly difficult.
Preliminary results indicate that a future government in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania would require three parties.
The pattern challenges Germany’s traditional reliance on two-party blocs and will demand greater compromise. The federal “traffic light” coalition of the SPD, Greens and Free Democrats, formed in 2021, collapsed after less than three years.
The firewall has so far kept the AfD out of power, but its widening appeal is testing whether that strategy remains viable. Rivals are therefore exploring alternative arrangements: in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the SPD may add the Greens to its existing coalition with The Left, while in Berlin The Left could combine with the SPD and Greens to secure a majority.
Economic pressures reshape voter choices
Germany’s weak economy is becoming a decisive issue, with voters across the political spectrum frustrated by high living costs and uncertainty.
Campaigning in both states took place against a backdrop of sharply higher fuel prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East and tens of thousands of additional job cuts in German industry. Years of stagnation have encouraged some voters to look beyond the political centre.
In Berlin, The Left appealed to voters concerned about the housing shortage by promising to build affordable new homes, mandate rent reductions for properties priced at least 20 percent above the local average and restrict holiday rentals.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD gained support for a promise to revive the Nord Stream gas pipeline from Russia, which ends in the state. The party argues that renewed Russian gas supplies would lower energy costs.
Mainstream parties lose ground
Die Linke also recorded substantial gains, benefiting as frustrated voters moved away from the established parties.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, polling by ARD’s infratest dimap estimated that The Left attracted 28,000 voters from the CDU and 45,000 from the SPD. The figures point to growing appeal among the SPD’s traditional working-class base.
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania’s SPD-led premier, Manuela Schwesig, identified opposition to aid for Ukraine and support for the former Nord Stream pipeline as factors drawing voters in the former East German state toward the Russia-friendly AfD.
In Berlin, preliminary data show that the SPD lost about 36,000 voters to The Left, while the Greens lost approximately 51,000.
