Global Surplus Pressures Cocoa Prices Amid Record Shipments

September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) slipped 128 cents to close at $5,052.25 per metric ton, while July ICE London cocoa (CAN26) fell 95 cents to $3,770.00.

Cocoa prices declined for a second consecutive session as markets absorbed forecasts of abundant global supplies. Bloomberg reported that Nigerian cocoa exports in May increased 28% year‑over‑year to 18,034 metric tons.

Over the past two weeks, cocoa prices have risen more than 20%, reaching five‑month highs last Thursday. The rally stems from concerns that heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana could disrupt harvests.

Excessive moisture in these key producing regions raises the risk of brown rot and black pod disease, potentially lowering yields and jeopardizing the upcoming harvest.

Looking ahead, medium‑term price support may emerge from further weather developments. On June 10, Japan’s Meteorological Agency confirmed an El Niño pattern forming across the equatorial Pacific. Historically, El Niño conditions bring warmer, drier weather to West Africa, stressing cocoa trees and reducing output.

NOAA estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” later this year, which could intensify supply constraints.

Early assessments of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop indicate below‑average cherelle formation, suggesting a weaker harvest beginning in September. Current estimates place the season’s output at 1.8 million metric tons, down 18% from the 2.2 million metric tons recorded in 2025/26.

Recent data show that Ivory Coast’s cocoa shipments to ports have risen sharply. As of June 7, cumulative shipments for the current marketing year (October 1, 2025 – June 7, 2026) reached 1.95 million metric tons, an 18.9% increase from the same period last year.

The Ivorian government recently revised its 2025/26 production forecast downward by 10.8% to 1.65 million metric tons, reflecting the impact of recent weather challenges.

Rising inventories put downward pressure on prices. ICE cocoa stocks climbed to a 1.75‑year high of 2,948,286 bags last Thursday.

Demand weakness also contributes to bearish sentiment. The National Confectioners Association reported that Q1 North American cocoa grindings fell 3.8% year‑over‑year to 106,087 metric tons.

Similarly, the European Cocoa Association noted a 7.8% decline in Q1 European grindings to 325,895 metric tons, marking the lowest quarterly figure in 17 years.

In contrast, Asian cocoa grindings rose 5.2% year‑over‑year to 223,503 metric tons in Q1, outperforming expectations of a 6.7% drop.

Supply reductions in Nigeria, the world’s fifth‑largest cocoa producer, provide some support. The Nigerian Cocoa Association projects a 11% year‑over‑year decline in 2025/26 production to 305,000 metric tons, down from 344,000 metric tons in 2024/25.

Price adjustments by major origin governments further influence market dynamics. In February, Ghana reduced its official farmgate price by nearly 30% for the 2025/26 season, while Ivory Coast announced a 57% cut in farmer payments effective for the mid‑crop harvest beginning in March.

Both Ghana and Ivory Coast together account for more than half of global cocoa output, making their policy shifts significant for pricing trends.

The outlook for a tighter global surplus bolsters price prospects. On April 29, StoneX lowered its 2026/27 surplus estimate to 149,000 metric tons from a January forecast of 267,000 metric tons, citing heightened weather risks in West Africa. The firm also trimmed its 2025/26 surplus projection to 247,000 metric tons from 287,000 metric tons.

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