Global Wheat Shortages Exacerbate Food Insecurity Amid War and Climate Crisis

Katrin is away this week; I’ll be your host. We’re beginning the week by examining turmoil in the world’s key agricultural regions.

One of the most concerning developments in the conflict in Iran has been its impact on fertilizer costs. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, prices surged precisely when spring planting was underway in the Northern Hemisphere. These effects persist, occurring at a time when global food prices are already elevated.

Today, colleague Somini Sengupta focuses on wheat, a fundamental dietary component.

From instant noodles to hot chapatis and sliced bread, wheat underpins modern nutrition. Yet this year, global wheat-producing regions face unprecedented challenges.

Heatwaves and droughts have reduced yields in major wheat-producing nations. Remaining harvests are now costlier to transport due to ongoing conflict and extreme weather conditions.

These overlapping issues highlight vulnerabilities in the global food system. A limited number of crops — primarily wheat — supply most of the world’s calories, with exports dominated by a handful of governments including Russia, Canada, the U.S., Ukraine, and the European Union. Their primary markets are low-income countries that have largely abandoned domestic food production.

“Our current system requires three pillars: uninterrupted trade, affordable energy, and climate stability,” stated Evan Fraser, University of Guelph researcher specializing in food systems. “None of these foundations appear secure today.”

War, Weather, and Wheat

Russia and Ukraine together supply nearly one-third of global wheat consumption. When Russia blocked Ukrainian Black Sea grain exports in 2022 following its invasion, vast price increases endangered food security for millions.

Though shipments resumed and prices eventually declined from peak levels, this year’s harvest season has seen Russian and Ukrainian grain exports again severely disrupted.

Recent months have seen intensified attacks on each other’s Black Sea grain infrastructure. Following a drone attack on Novorossiysk’s grain terminals this month, operations have halted. This follow-up to Russian strikes targeting Ukraine’s Odesa port — critical for Ukrainian grain exports — has further complicated maritime routes.

The Danube River represents an alternative shipping option, but drought-induced low water levels have triggered additional transportation obstacles this season.

European wheat producers cannot compensate for these shortages. France, the EU’s primary wheat producer, anticipates reduced yields due to record summer temperatures. German farmers report decreased wheat production alongside other crops. Coceral, the EU agricultural commodities group, forecasts 2026 wheat harvest of 286.6 million metric tons versus 2025’s 310 million metric tons.

Australia reduced wheat acreage this cycle due to elevated fertilizer prices resulting from the Strait of Hormuz closure. The U.S. faces its worst wheat harvest since 1970 due to severe Great Plains drought conditions.

Critical Inflection Point

Few economic factors carry the political weight of wheat prices. With wheat prices reaching three-year highs in July according to FAO data, governments face dual pressures of purchasing at inflated costs while subsidizing domestic bread affordability.

Egypt, importing most of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, has attempted to increase domestic production through farmer subsidies. However, water scarcity renders full self-sufficiency unattainable. Bangladesh’s controversial acceptance of U.S. wheat tariffs exemplifies emerging economies’ strained procurement options.

A temporary relief exists in 2025’s record wheat production, leaving surplus grain in farmer, trader, and government storage facilities.

Nonetheless, experts characterize 2026 as a pivotal warning. Overreliance on limited breadbaskets creates systemic fragility.

“This unrealistic food system model needs urgent rethinking,” Fraser concluded. “We must fundamentally reimagine global food security strategies.”

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