Gold sticks to gains above $4,050; bulls seem hesitant ahead of US NFP

Gold (XAU/USD) continued its modest advance for a second straight day on Thursday, staying within the range established the prior session. The U.S. dollar slipped slightly, bolstered by softer-than‑expected macro data released on Wednesday, which supported gold for a second consecutive day. Nonetheless, rising expectations of additional Fed rate hikes and geopolitical tensions have reinforced the dollar’s strength, limiting gains in gold ahead of the upcoming employment report.

ADP’s June report showed private‑sector employment rising by 98,000, lower than the upwardly revised 122,000 figure for May and below the consensus forecast of 113,000. The ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.3 in June from 54, while the Prices Paid Index dropped to 73 from 82.1 and the Employment Index rose to 49.7 from 48.6. A recent decline in crude oil prices has eased near‑term inflation concerns, keeping USD bulls cautious and providing additional support to gold.

CME FedWatch data still shows roughly a 64% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in September and an 85% likelihood of a hike by year‑end. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated his commitment to the 2% inflation goal, dampening expectations of accommodative policy despite President Trump’s advocacy for rate cuts. Several Fed officials also suggested that further rate increases may be required to achieve the 2% target, which should curb dollar declines and restrict gold’s upside.

Indirect talks between Iran and the United States in Qatar yielded no substantive progress, leaving geopolitical tensions over the Strait of Hormuz unresolved. Meanwhile, Russia attacked Kyiv with a wave of missiles and drones early Thursday. These developments sustain market uncertainty and keep the dollar’s bullish bias intact as investors await the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report later in the session, a key determinant of Fed policy and a major influence on gold’s short‑term direction.XAU/USD 4-hour chart

Gold bears have the upper hand wile below 100-SMA pivotal barrier on H4

Technically, the overnight short‑covering rally stalled near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent two‑week decline. The XAU/USD pair continues to trade beneath its 100‑period SMA, underscoring a short‑term bearish outlook.

Momentum indicators are showing signs of improvement, as the MACD has turned positive above zero and the RSI steadies near 54. A break above the 23.6% Fibonacci level would support further upside, though price action remains limited by the current structure.

Immediate resistance levels include the 38.2% Fibonacci at $4,112.32, the 100‑period SMA at $4,145.47, and the 50% retracement at $4,164.62. Additional hurdles are seen at the 61.8% level ($4,216.91), the 78.6% retracement ($4,291.37), and the cycle high of $4,386.20.

On the downside, the first support lies at the 23.6% retracement around $4,047.62, with a more pronounced decline targeting the swing low near $3,943.03.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below displays today’s percentage change of the U.S. dollar versus major currencies, highlighting its strength against the Australian dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.05%-0.09%-0.11%0.02%0.04%-0.04%-0.07%EUR0.05%-0.03%-0.06%0.05%0.08%0.02%-0.03%GBP0.09%0.03%-0.02%0.11%0.13%0.07%0.00%JPY0.11%0.06%0.02%0.12%0.16%0.05%0.03%CAD-0.02%-0.05%-0.11%-0.12%0.03%-0.03%-0.11%AUD-0.04%-0.08%-0.13%-0.16%-0.03%-0.06%-0.12%NZD0.04%-0.02%-0.07%-0.05%0.03%0.06%-0.06%CHF0.07%0.03%-0.01%-0.03%0.11%0.12%0.06%

The heat map illustrates percentage changes among major currencies, with the base currency listed in the left column and the quote currency across the top. For example, selecting the U.S. dollar in the left column and the Japanese yen in the top row shows the USD/JPY percentage change.

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