The Green Bay Packers (1-1) look to secure their second victory in five days as they host the Atlanta Falcons (0-2) for the home opener at Lambeau Field on “Thursday Night Football.” This matchup marks the first of nine regular-season home games for the Packers. Can Green Bay kick off its home schedule with a primetime win, especially with Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. returning to the field?
Here are five key things to watch, along with a prediction for Week 3:
1. Rebuilt offensive line
Everything starts with the offensive line, which will be without starters Zach Bako-Bewele (knee, out for season) and Aaron Banks (toe, ruled out) against the Falcons. With those key pieces missing, expect Anthony Belton to start at right tackle, while either Donovan Jennings or rookie Jager Burton will start at left guard. Atlanta doesn’t blitz a ton, but Jeff Ulbrich’s defense is generating pressure on 41.7 percent of opponent dropbacks, ranking seventh overall. This poses a major challenge for an offensive front that hasn’t blocked well enough in either the run or pass game. Returning home might help settle the offensive line, but the Packers will remain inconsistent on offense until the front settles.
2. Bottling up Bijan
Only four players have recorded more total touches than Bijan Robinson through the first two weeks. The Falcons had to funnel their entire offense through Robinson while starting backup quarterbacks, but don’t expect Atlanta to be quite as one-dimensional on Thursday night. Still, containing Robinson—the heart and soul of the Falcons’ offense—is the biggest key for the Packers’ defense. Green Bay must put the game in Michael Penix Jr.’s hands in his first start back from a knee injury. The Packers are allowing only 2.9 yards per rush and have a team run-stuff rate of over 20 percent. Robinson is also a highly dangerous pass-catcher (with 79 catches a year ago), meaning the Packers must know where No. 7 is on every single snap.
3. Who starts fast?
Starting fast is always crucial, but it is especially important on Thursday nights. The Packers are coming off a road overtime game and are dealing with injuries along the offensive and defensive lines. The Falcons, meanwhile, just suffered a decisive 34-3 loss and are traveling away from home on a short week. Both teams will want to build some confidence early on Thursday night after shaky starts to the season. The Packers need to play with energy and urgency to deliver a strong home opener. The Falcons could be a desperate team coming off last week’s loss, and they will get a spark with the return of their quarterback.
4. The return of Z
Former Packers edge rusher Za’Darius Smith is returning to Green Bay as the top pass-rusher for the Falcons. He leads the team with 2.5 sacks and eight pressures across only 34 pass-rushing snaps. Smith might be 34 years old, but he still looks slippery and dangerous as a rusher. Also, former Bears defensive lineman Gervon Dexter has been excellent from the interior, producing eight pressures. For an offensive line needing to find its footing, the Packers must keep Smith and Dexter out of the backfield on Thursday night.
5. Special teams and takeaway opportunities
This might be a Packers team that needs to win with defense and special teams early on in the season. Considering the struggles of the Falcons’ offense to start the year, it is possible Thursday night will feature plenty of punts. Does Skyy Moore have an encore? He is looking like a field-flipping weapon to start the year. Until the offense stabilizes, the Packers might need a couple of short fields to score enough to win. Takeaways are one way to create a short field, but a long kick or punt return is suddenly a viable avenue for the Packers’ special teams to make a major impact.
Prediction: Packers 20, Falcons 16
On a scale of 1 to 10, my confidence level in a Packers victory is not high, maybe a 5 or 6. If the Falcons had any kind of offensive pulse, this would feel like a true toss-up game given the state of the offensive line, and how so much of what has ailed the Packers is centered on the offensive line’s play through two weeks. That said, if there’s a more troubled offensive team entering Week 3, it’s the Falcons, who are returning their quarterback but still have massive problems. Overall, the Packers’ defense has been a real strength, so even if Green Bay’s offense struggles to sustain drives once again, a takeaway or two will probably swing the game in the right direction. Winning ugly might just be the way forward until the rebuilt offensive line settles in. Defense, special teams, and avoiding mistakes on offense—that should be the plan for Thursday night.
