Has Sandisk Achieved a Nvidia‑Style Breakthrough After a 3,110% Surge?

Key Points

• Sandisk focuses on NAND flash memory and enterprise SSD production.

• Its data center segment is expanding at a pace reminiscent of Nvidia’s early AI‑era growth.

• Despite a sharp stock rally, valuation multiples indicate the shares remain inexpensive.

After Western Digital spun off Sandisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) in February, the company became an independent provider of NAND flash storage and SSDs serving three main markets: data centers, edge devices such as PCs, smartphones, automobiles and gaming consoles, and branded consumer storage products.

At first glance the business seems routine, but the demand for Sandisk’s products has shifted. Training and running large language models now require more than just GPUs; generative AI also needs high‑speed storage for data lakes, model weights and caching as inference scales.

AI hyperscalers are steadily shifting capital spending beyond chips into downstream components, fuelling a supercycle in the memory market. While most investors tracking the AI trade understand these dynamics, many overlook how to value the magnitude of this expansion.

Over the last twelve months Sandisk’s share price has climbed roughly thirty‑fold. In 2026 alone the stock is up more than 500%, even after retreating about one‑third from its June peak. Whether the rally will continue hinges on a single figure: $93.9 billion. The following sections explain why this number matters for Sandisk’s future.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Sandisk’s growth looks familiar

For the fiscal year ended July 3, Sandisk reported $20.2 billion in revenue, a 175% year‑over‑year increase. GAAP earnings per share rose to $73.76 after a loss the prior year. While the top‑line growth is evident, the underlying story lies in the company’s revenue mix.

The Edge segment remains the largest, contributing $12.2 billion, up 195% year over year, as AI‑enabled PCs and smartphones consume more flash memory. Consumer‑division sales rose a modest 29% to $2.9 billion. Meanwhile, the data‑center business surged 437% to $5.2 billion; in the fourth quarter alone data‑center revenue nearly doubled sequentially to $2.9 billion and exceeded twelve‑fold the year‑ago level.

This expansion pace is not a simple copy of Nvidia’s early AI surge. During fiscal 2024 Nvidia’s data‑center revenue climbed 217% to $47.5 billion, and the following year it grew another 142% to roughly $115 billion.

Given the absolute dollar size, Sandisk’s data‑center operation is naturally smaller than Nvidia’s. Initially, hyperscalers prioritized GPU purchases above all other chip‑chain components. Yet investors now recognize that the initial GPU wave created the tailwinds driving today’s AI memory demand. Beneath the surface, the percentage gain in Sandisk’s data‑center business already mirrors Nvidia’s early breakout trajectory.

Sandisk’s new contracts are like Nvidia’s chip architecture launches

The $93.9 billion figure represents a floor, not an aspirational forecast. Sandisk has entered New Business Model (NBM) agreements with eight data‑center and edge customers. These contracts lock in committed bit volumes and blend fixed and variable pricing with built‑in floors and ceilings.

Management notes that the NBMs extend up to five years, with a weighted‑average term exceeding four years. At the close of the fourth quarter, remaining performance obligations (RPO) stood at $59.8 billion; after two post‑quarter agreements the total rose to $91.1 billion.

These agreements function for Sandisk much like a new chip architecture did for Nvidia. When Nvidia unveiled Hopper or Blackwell, hyperscalers rushed to secure multi‑year data‑center demand. Sandisk’s NBMs provide a comparable visibility window without a product codename, effectively turning the company’s historically volatile pricing into a more predictable backlog.

Sandisk stock is cheap relative to Nvidia’s early breakout

Even with a share price near $1,500, the market values Sandisk as a cyclical memory stock. Its trailing P/E sits around 20, while the forward earnings multiple hovers around 7.

SNDK PE Ratio data by YCharts.

By contrast, Nvidia never traded at such low forward multiples during fiscal 2024‑2025. Its forward P/E initially spiked to about 30 before settling above 50 as the firm captured the bulk of the early AI infrastructure build‑out.

NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.

Sandisk is clearly the cheaper option, by a wide margin. A firm whose data‑center business is compounding at Nvidia‑like rates and that has secured roughly $94 billion of minimum contracted revenue is being priced as if a downturn is the baseline. This discrepancy signals that the stock’s valuation has yet to catch up with its underlying growth – the telltale sign of an impending “Nvidia moment.”

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