How US oil firms profit $130bn from Iran war as household bills surge

[US Oil Giants Capture $130 Billion Profit Surge During Iran Conflict While Household Costs Rise]

United States oil companies have earned more than $130 billion in profits during the conflict in Iran, while consumers bear the higher cost of fuel, as doubts grow over whether President Donald Trump will renew military action after the midterm elections.

The estimate, released by The New York Times, reflects performance from 51 large US oil and gas firms across the six‑month period from April through September. By contrast, the same window in 2025—and when oil prices were lower before the US‑Israel war on Iran—colleagues collectively earned under $47 billion.

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However, these gains coincide with mounting living costs. Americans have spent an extra $150 billion on petrol and diesel since the Iran war began on February 28, an amount exceeding $1,150 per household.

This disparity has intensified the political debate over who benefits and who bears the price. Rep. Jim McGovern responded to Trump on X: “We’re not making a ‘freaking fortune,’ we’re PAYING a ‘freaking fortune’.”

US Big Oil positioned to profit where others lose

Naser al‑Tamimi, a fellow at the Institute for International Political Studies in Milan, Italy, observes that US energy firms have benefited in multiple ways. “Crude producers gain from higher oil prices, while refiners capture exceptional margins as diesel and other fuel supplies tighten,” he said.

“Additionally, damage to Middle Eastern and Russian refineries, disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipments, and sanctions‑related trade frictions have intensified shortages,” the expert continued, adding that “relatively secure US facilities and access to discounted crude strengthen these gains.”

ExxonMobil and Chevron, the two largest US oil companies, reported profits of roughly $10 billion to $15 billion on Friday. Though the gains are substantial, The New York Times notes they generally remain below 2022 levels, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drove oil prices to about $100 a barrel and natural gas rose, compared with the current April‑through‑September average of $90.

American refiners also posted record profits as global fuel supplies tightened and inventories depleted by infrastructure damage in the Middle East and Russia. Valero Energy’s third‑quarter profit more than doubled, reaching $6.83 billion. Phillips 66 announced its highest quarterly profit on record, with net income jumping to $5.62 billion from $133 million a year earlier.

Geopolitical analyst Geoffrey Miller, editor of Gulf States Insights, says the US‑Israel war with Iran “created the largest supply‑side shock to global oil and refined products markets in years.” He adds that the conflict “created a risk premium that US‑based operators are structurally well placed to monetise,” whereas Gulf producers faced “hit hard by higher costs and risks, along with physical damage, making it difficult to benefit from higher prices.”

Iran retaliated by launching missiles and drones at GCC nations. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), a US‑registered independent monitor, recorded at least 172 strikes on non‑military infrastructure across the six GCC member states. Iranian officials claim they targeted US military sites, but they also struck energy facilities.

Tehran further blocked most vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian oil and gas, steps that increase the risk of energy transport through this critical waterway.

Analysts warn of ongoing volatility until a durable political settlement between the US and Iran is reached. Oil prices fell briefly after a June memorandum of understanding, only to rebound quickly when talks collapsed.

A more recent escalation—Saudi‑Houthi fighting—has compounded the crisis. The Bab al‑Mandeb strait, vital for Saudi oil exports to the Red Sea, now serves as a theatre of war.

“In the short term, windfall profits will only strengthen oil company balance sheets and shareholder returns,” Miller noted. “However, the major caveat is that sustained high oil prices risk harming economic growth prospects and could contribute to a recession, which would further reduce oil demand and accelerate the transition to renewable energy.”

Florence Schmit, senior energy strategist at Rabobank, expects key energy prices to stay elevated due to uncertainty about the war’s duration.

“Prices in all markets exposed to this global supply shock—including the US—are likely to remain high next year, and consumers will continue to feel price pressure unless governments intervene,” Schmit told Al Jazeera.

The US‑led war on Iran has raised costs for oil, transport fuels, gas, electricity and food. The World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook projects a 23% rise in commodity prices this year, compounded by disrupted grain shipments and El Nino forecasts for lower harvests.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization reported on October 2 that world food commodity prices rose 1.5% in September, reaching their highest level since late 2022 in August amid adverse weather and Black Sea and Strait of Hormuz trade disruptions.

Trump has attempted to blame high global fuel prices on Ukraine, pressing Kyiv President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to halt strikes on Russian refineries, even as Moscow continues attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The president has argued that a deal with Russia reversing sanctions would lower diesel prices.

In the Gulf region, analysts say higher oil prices will aid exporters who can maintain shipments, but prolonged insecurity will continue to threaten supply reliability and investment.

“Gulf producers face years of reconstruction and pressure to diversify export routes,” al‑Tamimi warned. “A diplomatic settlement could ease prices, whereas renewed US‑Israeli attacks on Iran risk spurring another regional war, further disrupting Hormuz and prolonging shortages.”

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