HSBC initiated coverage of SpaceX with a hold rating and a $115 price target, asserting that the company’s shares are already fully valued even when factoring in a significant premium for CEO Elon Musk’s track record of creating transformative industries. The valuation incorporates a 2x “innovation premium” to reflect Musk’s ability to commercialize disruptive technologies, though the target falls below the company’s $135 IPO price and recent trading levels near $118. Analysts noted that while traditional valuation methods often apply discounts for risks or complexities, companies led by proven founders with a history of reshaping sectors warrant premium consideration. Using Tesla’s stock performance during its first decade as a public company as a benchmark, HSBC emphasized Musk’s consistent approach to disruptive innovation and business expansion. The base-case valuation assumes SpaceX has already priced in growth from Starlink satellite internet, increasing launch operations, and emerging AI initiatives. A more optimistic “blue sky” scenario projects a valuation of $293 per share, contingent on Starship achieving commercial success by 2027, doubling launch capacity, expanded Starlink market share, and higher AI asset valuations.
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