Iceland Voters Decide on Reviving EU Accession Talks in Tight Referendum

Icelanders head to the polls on Saturday to vote in a referendum on restarting EU accession talks, a tightly contested race drawing close attention from Brussels.

With a population of just under 400,000, Iceland applied for EU membership after the 2009 financial crisis that shattered its economy.

Negotiations were halted in 2013 when a Eurosceptic government took office.

Opinion polls show the race is extremely close, with the “Yes” and “No” sides essentially tied.

“It’s tight, but I remain optimistic,” said Foreign Minister Thorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, a committed Europhile, speaking to AFP. “Nothing is settled until it’s settled.”

Polling opens at 9:00 a.m. (0900 GMT) and closes at 10:00 p.m. Because there will be no exit polls and the vote is expected to be close, the first reliable results are not likely until late Saturday.

About 273,000 eligible voters will answer yes or no to the question: “Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?”

If the “Yes” vote prevails, an accession agreement would be negotiated with Brussels and then submitted to a second referendum on full membership.

Fisheries—a cornerstone of Iceland’s economy and a policy area Reykjavik insists on controlling—would need to be resolved with Brussels, which this time appears more open to compromise.

“The fundamentals are largely domestic, but the second term of U.S. President Donald Trump and the resulting geopolitical turbulence have also played a role,” noted Eirikur Bergmann, a political scientist at Bifrost University, in remarks to AFP.

Although Iceland’s economy is now strong, some voters question the need to revisit EU membership, pointing out that the country already enjoys single‑market access through the European Economic Area.

“It’s like being in a relationship where you don’t live together—if marrying means losing what you already have, why tie the knot?” remarked Hjördís Vilhjálmsdóttir, a 60‑year‑old radio presenter whose glasses sport the red, blue and white of the Icelandic flag.

“We don’t need Brussels to dictate our affairs; we can manage on our own,” said Elias Theodórsson, a 65‑year‑old entrepreneur.

“A century ago we were among Europe’s poorest nations; today we are one of its most prominent, and we achieved that ourselves,” he added.

Money talks

Yet Iceland’s renewed prosperity has brought rising inflation and interest rates.

Many households face mortgage rates around nine percent, making the prospect of adopting the euro—with its far lower borrowing costs—particularly attractive.

“That gap is huge, and it would mean a lot for my family,” said Alexandra Yr van Erven, a 32‑year‑old university administrator.

“I believe it’s responsible to give the government the mandate to negotiate a deal with the EU, so we can see what’s possible and then judge the outcome.”

Globally, the resurgence of war in Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended long‑standing security assumptions.

The unpredictability of U.S. President Donald Trump and his talk of seizing neighboring Greenland have heightened Icelanders’ anxieties.

Their island lies in the sub‑Arctic, has no armed forces, and relies on NATO and a 1951 defense agreement with the United States for its security.

“People are now questioning whether that agreement remains valid,” Bergmann said. “Geopolitical shifts are influencing the debate, but they aren’t driving it.”

The EU will watch the referendum outcome closely; it has not welcomed a wealthy net contributor to its budget since 1994.

Brussels would view Icelandic membership as a model of positive enlargement that could also make it easier to admit poorer candidates such as Montenegro—or even sway opinions in wealthy non‑EU Norway, which might otherwise find itself isolated.

“Iceland’s decision would undoubtedly strengthen the case for the EU to welcome new members,” EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos noted.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)

Source link