Icelanders head to polls for tight referendum on restarting EU accession talks

Icelanders are set to vote on Saturday on whether to relaunch entry negotiations with the European Union, as growing global instability shapes a referendum that appears too close to call.

Voters are not being asked to decide immediately on joining the 27-member bloc. Instead, the ballot asks whether the government should be empowered to negotiate potential terms of accession, including the highly sensitive question of fishing rights.

“This is an opportunity, it’s not a final decision,” Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir told AFP, framing the vote as a path toward a “risk-reducing ‘Yes’.”

“This way you get a deal on the table, you’re able to see all the questions, the answers to all the questions we get here,” she said.

She was speaking to AFP following a “listening meeting” in Selfoss, one of the many small towns the Social Democratic leader has visited to hear Icelanders’ questions and concerns on the issue.

On Saturday, voters will be asked to answer “Yes” or “No” to the question: “Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?”

Implied in that question is whether the country of 400,000 inhabitants ultimately believes it is better to remain the captain of its own ship, or to hitch its cart to the EU.

If the “Yes” side prevails, an accession agreement negotiated with Brussels would be put to a separate referendum and would likely require a constitutional amendment in Iceland, along with ratification by EU member states.

The North Atlantic island applied to join the bloc in 2009, a year after the 2008 financial crisis triggered the collapse of its banks and economy.

Membership negotiations began in 2010 but were suspended in 2013 after a eurosceptic government came to power.

The world has changed radically since then.

“The EU is looking around, it’s finishing deals with India, with Mercosur. We’re seeing changes in the global climate when it comes to how people are using tariffs as weapons,” Frostadottir noted.

Divisive question

While Iceland’s economy is flourishing again — albeit with a volatile currency — households are grappling with rising inflation and soaring interest rates. The central bank has raised rates three times so far this year, bringing them to eight percent. This has made the euro an attractive option for indebted households.

On the global stage, the return of war in Europe with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken established security doctrines.

US President Donald Trump’s threats to take over neighbouring Greenland have added to Icelanders’ concerns. The island is strategically located in the sub-Arctic, has no military of its own, and depends on NATO and a 1951 bilateral agreement with the United States for its defence.

“The geopolitical upheaval that we have seen recently is not the root cause of this referendum. But obviously, those concerns are impacting the debate,” Bifrost University professor Eirikur Bergmann told AFP.

“Mainly the aggression towards Greenland has caused great concern in Iceland and caused many people here to pause and reassess where Iceland belongs.”

Opinion polls suggest Icelanders are deeply divided on the EU question.

Office worker Vilborg Inga Magnusdottir said she saw no reason to change the status quo.

“Why would we want to enter the European Union? What would we benefit from it when things are already good?” the 33-year-old told AFP.

Unlike her, Hrafnkell Gudnason plans to vote “Yes”.

“It’s getting more dangerous for a small country to stand outside the EU,” the 59-year-old consultant and horse-breeder said.

“I think it’s safer to be a part of a bigger family.”

Compromise on fishing?

In a country where seafood products account for around 40 percent of goods exports, fishing — an integral part of Iceland’s national identity — would inevitably be the central issue in EU negotiations.

Half a century after the last “Cod Wars” with Britain, many Icelanders remain reluctant to cede even the smallest measure of control over their hard-won national waters to Brussels.

Even Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir, a staunch europhile, has made it clear that in any future negotiations Reykjavik would insist on retaining “sovereign control over all fisheries”.

That position would be difficult to reconcile with the EU’s current Common Fisheries Policy.

Brussels has stayed out of the fray ahead of the referendum, but has sent positive signals, even on the sensitive fisheries issue.

For the EU, the prospect of welcoming a wealthy, stable country already largely integrated into the single market through its membership in the European Economic Area would provide a strong showcase for its enlargement policy and strengthen its presence in a coveted region.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)

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