October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed down 0.05 (‑0.34%) on Wednesday, while October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV26) rose 1.60 (+0.35%).
Sugar prices were mixed, with NY sugar slipping to a 1.5‑week low as market participants weighed the prospect of stronger Indian output following better monsoon conditions. India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall was 15 % below normal as of July 29, up from 42 % below normal on June 30. Earlier, the Earth Science Ministry warned that the season could be the weakest in 11 years; the monsoon typically runs from June through September.
Prices rebounded after Green Pool Commodity Specialists upgraded the global 2026/27 sugar deficit to ‑3.3 MMT from a June estimate of ‑1.76 MMT, and StoneX increased its own deficit forecast for 2026/27 to ‑1.7 MMT from a May estimate of ‑550 000 MT.
Stronger crude oil prices also provided support. WTI crude (CLU26) surged more than 6 % on Wednesday, lifting ethanol values and prompting mills worldwide to shift more cane processing toward ethanol, thereby tightening sugar supplies.
El Niño concerns added a bullish tint. The pattern, expected to be one of the strongest in over 75 years, could curb rainfall in Brazil, India and Thailand—the three largest sugar‑producing regions. The US Climate Prediction Center noted the emerging El Niño on July 8, and India’s weather office later trimmed its June‑September monsoon estimate to 90 % of the long‑term average from a 92 % forecast in April.
In Brazil, Unica reported that Center‑South sugar output through May was 6.838 MMT, 2 % lower year‑on‑year as ethanol production rose. The share of sugarcane processed for sugar fell to 41.42 % from 50.09 %, while ethanol processing increased to 58.38 % from 49.91 %.
Sugar trader Czarnikow cut its global 2026/27 balance forecast on June 11, turning a projected 1.4 MMT surplus into a ‑100 000 MT deficit, citing higher ethanol output in Brazil.
Conab’s April 28 initial report for the new season forecasts Brazilian sugar output at 43.952 MMT (‑0.5 % y/y) and ethanol production at 29.259 million L (+7.2 % y/y).
ISMA revised India’s 2025/26 sugar production forecast to 32 MMT (down from 32.4 MMT) and projected exports of 800 000 MT. After late‑season rains curtailed supplies in 2022/23, India instituted an export quota system. The USDA expects a 2.5 MMT surplus in India for 2026/27, the first in two years.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a record global sugar crop in 2025/26 at 182 MMT (+3.5 % y/y) and raised its surplus estimate to 2.2 MMT. For 2026/27, however, global output is seen falling 1.15 % to 180 MMT, resulting in a deficit of 262 000 MT, largely due to El Niño impacts on India and Thailand. StoneX upgraded its deficit forecast to 1.7 MMT, while Covrig Analytics trimmed its surplus forecast to 100 000 MT.
The USDA’s May biannual report projects global 2026/27 production at 184.854 MMT (‑6.5 % y/y), consumption at a record 179.991 MMT (+0.4 % y/y) and ending stocks at 44.410 MMT (+2 % y/y). FAS forecasts Brazil’s 2026/27 output at 42.5 MMT (‑3 % y/y), India’s at 33.6 MMT (+12 % y/y) on the back of favorable monsoon rains and expanded acreage, and Thailand’s at 9.5 MMT (‑15.6 % y/y).
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