India’s Fertility Rate Dips Below Replacement Level: Economic and Political Implications Emerge

India’s fertility rate has fallen below the replacement threshold for the first time, signaling a demographic shift that could reshape the nation’s labor market, social security systems, and political landscape in the coming decades.

For years, India has been synonymous with rapid population expansion. Government data, including the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report — the country’s most comprehensive demographic survey — shows a steady decline in fertility, yet the rate remained sufficiently high to sustain population growth. That dynamic has now changed.

The latest SRS report, released last month by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, places India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at 1.9 children per woman, below the 2.1 benchmark required for long-term population stability. TFR represents the average number of children a woman is expected to bear in her lifetime. In the early 2000s, that figure stood at approximately 3.3.

The decline raises immediate questions about its drivers, its consequences, and how policymakers should respond.

Drivers of the Decline

Since the 1970s, Indian governments have actively pursued population control, framing rapid growth as a strain on limited resources. Aggressive, top-down measures — most notably a brief, coercive sterilization campaign in the 1970s — aimed to curb births. As recently as 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned of a “population explosion.”

Yet by 2022, the National Family Health Survey revealed a steep, cross-community drop in TFR. The milestone was overshadowed a year later when India surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation, with a population exceeding 1.5 billion. The latest data suggests the prospect of population contraction may arrive sooner than anticipated.

Experts attribute the decline to expanded access to education and contraception, greater female agency in household decisions, and the rising cost of child-rearing.

“Fertility rates typically fall when more women gain access to education, contraceptives, and decision-making power,” said Dipa Sinha, a development economist specializing in Indian social policy. “Economic pressures also play a role: as the cost of living rises, so does the cost of raising children.”

Declining infant mortality is another factor. The SRS report notes a drop in infant deaths from 30 per 1,000 live births in 2019 to 24 in 2024. When child survival improves, families tend to have fewer children.

These dynamics align closely with stark regional disparities. Bihar, one of India’s poorest states with low education levels and high infant mortality, recorded the highest TFR at 2.9, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 2.6. In contrast, New Delhi — with high education levels and low infant mortality — registered a TFR of just 1.2. Southern states such as Tamil Nadu and Kerala, which lead on health and education indicators, recorded rates of 1.3.

“Research dating to the early 1980s shows southern states advanced faster on economic development and women’s status,” Sinha noted. “Those gains have directly contributed to lower fertility.”

Economic Consequences: The Demographic Dividend at Risk

In 2005, India entered a “demographic dividend” phase — a window when the working-age population (15–64) outnumbers dependents. The UNFPA projects this window will remain open until 2055. Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and China leveraged similar phases to fuel rapid economic ascent.

India’s dividend has supported growth, but millions remain unemployed, and the country has yet to achieve developed-economy status. A shrinking fertility rate threatens to close the window prematurely, reducing the future workforce while accelerating population aging.

“Fewer births today mean a smaller labor force in 30 to 40 years, alongside a growing elderly population,” Sinha warned. “That poses a structural challenge to workforce sustainability.”

Political Fault Lines: Federalism and Communal Narratives

Divergent fertility rates across states are reshaping political calculus. Northern states, already more populous, will claim a growing share of the national population, while southern states — which have long argued they receive a disproportionately small share of federal funds — fear further marginalization. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has historically struggled in the south, though it has made recent inroads.

“Resource allocation between the center and states could become a major flashpoint,” Sinha said. A delimitation exercise slated for parliament later this year — based on a new census concluding in 2027 — will redistribute parliamentary seats by population. Southern states fear a loss of representation.

Communal narratives further complicate the discourse. The BJP and affiliated groups have long amplified claims that Muslim fertility outpaces Hindu fertility, stoking fears of demographic overtake. In February, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat urged Hindu couples to have three to four children.

Data contradicts the narrative. Muslims constituted 13% of the population in the 2011 census. Government figures show Muslim TFR fell from 4.41 to 2.36 between 1992 and 2021, a steeper decline than the Hindu rate, which dropped from 3.3 to 1.94. The latest survey confirms fertility is falling sharply across all religious groups.

Policy Responses: State-Level Experiments

The central government has not yet announced a national strategy to address declining fertility, but several states have launched incentives. Andhra Pradesh, with a TFR of 1.4, now offers ₹30,000 ($314) for a third child and ₹40,000 ($418) for a fourth. Goa, Karnataka, and Telangana have established state-funded IVF centers for first-time parents.

Sinha cautioned that policy must respect reproductive autonomy. “India needs a demographic policy aligned with its future structure,” she said. “If we are becoming an aging society, we must guarantee healthcare, pensions, and social security for the elderly — starting now.”

A Regional Trend

India is not alone. Across Asia, fertility rates are plummeting. The World Bank puts China’s TFR at 1.0. Taiwan’s interior ministry reported a rate of roughly 0.86 earlier this year, with further declines expected. The United Nations estimates South Korea’s rate at approximately 0.75 — the lowest globally.

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