Iran Escalates Hostilities to Target Trump’s Political Standing Ahead of US Midterms

Analysts suggest that Iran is ramping up its confrontational posture toward the United States, aiming to increase the political and economic costs for President Donald Trump as the US midterm elections approach in less than two months.

More than six months after conflict erupted on February 28 following US-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Tehran appears to be escalating tensions rather than pursuing diplomatic de-escalation, even at the risk of returning to full-scale warfare.

Facing intense pressure to conclude the conflict before the November 3 midterms, Trump stated on Wednesday, “I think the war will end immediately after the election,” asserting that Iran “can’t hold out any longer.”

Despite the current ambiguity within Tehran’s command structure—as Khamenei’s son and successor, Mojtaba, has yet to make a public appearance—the Iranian leadership has reaffirmed its long-standing policy of confrontation with the United States.

In a move to disrupt global energy flows, Iran has announced and subsequently expanded a new prohibited zone within the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor responsible for roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas trade.

“Iran perceives that it is winning the war and that the US is losing,” Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa, told AFP. “It perceives a window of opportunity to exploit US weakness and vulnerability to reshape the regional order to its benefit,” he added.

– ‘Exploit US vulnerabilities’ –

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, noted that Iran “is trying to convert escalation into increased leverage.”

“Tehran believes that pressure on Hormuz and the threat of wider disruption can exploit US vulnerabilities, especially the political and economic costs of another Middle East crisis ahead of the midterms,” she added.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards announced on Wednesday that they had targeted 10 vessels attempting to transit the newly declared prohibited zone in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Guards also claimed responsibility for a strike on a US military base in Jordan, following a US operation the previous day that destroyed five Iranian oil tankers. CBS News reported that approximately eight US F-15 aircraft sustained light damage during the Iranian strikes on Tuesday night.

Juneau noted that Iran believes the US is constrained from significant escalation due to the upcoming elections, suggesting that “an easily distracted President Trump is ceding the momentum to Iran.”

In Tehran, the ideology of confrontation remains prevalent; AFP images show banners displaying slogans such as “we will kill Trump” alongside depictions of American fallen soldiers.

– ‘Hopes to weaken Trump’ –

The expansion of the prohibited zone was broadcast on state television Sunday by Mohsen Rezaei, the new head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Rezaei is among several hardliners recently appointed to high-level positions by the still-unseen Mojtaba Khamenei.

“We don’t trust the United States, and we will not take further steps unless they engage in trust-building measures… They need to deliver,” Rezaei declared while appearing in full military uniform.

On Wednesday, Revolutionary Guards spokesman Hossein Mohebi issued several demands to end the conflict, including the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon and the release of approximately $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets.

Analysts suggest Iran’s strategy is designed to damage Trump’s political capital ahead of the midterms, potentially costing the Republican Party control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, which would leave the President as a “lame duck” for his final two years.

“Iran cannot defeat the United States militarily,” said Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. “Instead, Tehran hopes to weaken President Trump politically by contributing to a Republican defeat in the midterm elections—keeping gasoline prices high and reminding American voters that the president has entangled the United States in the very ‘never-ending war’ he promised to avoid,” he added.

– ‘Anger will mount’ –

While Trump remains confident in a swift conclusion to the war, the Wall Street Journal reported that advisors have warned him that Iran may continue its resistance well beyond his term, potentially lasting until 2029.

Vakil of Chatham House remarked that while Iran “could be overestimating how much escalation Washington will tolerate,” the leadership views this as their primary method of pressuring the Trump administration.

Beyond the leadership vacuum, Iran faces significant domestic challenges, including an economic crisis that triggered mass protests and a subsequent crackdown in January that resulted in thousands of deaths.

“There absolutely is a risk of Iran overplaying its hand,” Juneau warned, noting that the leadership remains “very vulnerable domestically” and that “popular anger will only mount as economic problems worsen.”

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