Iran reveals ‘offensive’ doctrine, US issues alert: Is war imminent?

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says renewed attacks by the United States could prompt Tehran to invade neighboring countries and strike bases used in US military operations as part of its new “offensive” strategy.

The warning, delivered on Wednesday, comes amid escalating attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global energy chokepoint—and amid uncertainty over diplomatic efforts to end the near‑eight‑month conflict.

“Our defence doctrine was previously defensive; we used to say that if a country attacks us, we will respond. Now we say that if a country attacks us, we will both respond and launch an offensive,” IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi said.

Washington ordered some diplomatic personnel to leave Saudi Arabia amid attacks from Yemen’s Houthis, while US President Donald Trump has signaled that a decision on the conflict could come soon.

According to media reports, the US and Israel are planning potential attacks on Iran in the coming weeks.

As negotiations appear stalled and both sides exchange threats, analysts ask whether the region is heading toward another military escalation.

What is Iran’s new doctrine?

The IRGC announced on Wednesday a shift toward an “offensive and asymmetrical” defence doctrine, threatening to invade countries that launch attacks against it.

Spokesman Mohebi said Tehran would no longer limit its military operations to retaliatory strikes.

He stressed that Iran’s missile stockpile has increased 1.5 times since the 12‑day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025, though he provided no specific figures.

“The quality of the missiles has improved significantly, and their range, destructive power and accuracy in hitting targets have increased,” the spokesman said.

Moreover, Mohebi said Iranian forces were in the “stage of preparing to unveil the ‘father of all bombs’. This is something new for the enemy.”

Meanwhile, attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continued unabated.

The IRGC’s navy reported on Thursday that four vessels it accused of illegal oil transfers were struck and set ablaze in the northern Gulf. Three other vessels hit mines west of the strait, the navy added.

Before the war, one‑fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipments through the strait remain below those levels, yet oil exports from the region have returned to pre‑war volumes as exporters use pipelines and other alternative routes.

However, a recent surge in attacks on the waterway, coupled with fighting between Yemen’s Houthis and the Saudi‑backed government, has driven oil prices higher. Brent crude climbed above $110 a barrel on Thursday amid concerns about further disruptions to regional energy supplies.

Why the shift?

Analysts say Iran’s move toward an offensive military posture reflects Tehran’s determination to make future US‑Israeli attacks far more costly.

Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow at the Centre for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that Tehran is drawing lessons from the wars of 2025‑2026, after its previous retaliation‑focused strategy failed to deter repeated strikes.

“Tehran now wants to establish a new equation: Any future attack on Iran will come at a much higher cost for the aggressors,” she said.

Unable to match conventional US military capabilities, Iran is increasingly relying on asymmetric warfare, including missiles, drones and its control over the Strait of Hormuz, Mortazavi explained.

She added that Tehran is pursuing a broader strategy aimed at imposing military, economic and political costs on Washington, potentially influencing the November 3 US midterm elections.

“Iran wants to teach Washington a lesson: Attacking Iran comes with a high price, one that can even cost elections,” Mortazavi said, noting US surveys that predict electoral losses for Trump’s Republican Party.

She explained that Iranian officials are closely watching the elections, believing that economic fallout from the war could hurt the Republican Party’s chances of retaining Congress.

“The long‑term objective is to establish deterrence so that future American administrations think twice before daring to attack Iran again,” she said.

Political analyst Rami Khouri said the doctrine also aims to ensure that the consequences of attacks extend to the United States, Israel and regional countries supporting their military operations.

“That’s one part of the strategy, that the suffering and the damage have to be equal and reciprocal,” Khouri, a non‑resident senior fellow at the Arab Center, told Al Jazeera.

Khouri argued that Tehran is also seeking to challenge what it sees as long‑standing Western domination of the region.

“The Iranians are actually working to try to end the colonial period,” he said.

He added that Iran’s strategy could broaden the economic impact of any conflict far beyond the Middle East, affecting energy supplies, transportation, insurance costs and the shipment of essential goods.

“The pain is going to go way beyond just the Middle East and Israel and the US and will hurt people in other parts of the world,” Khouri said.

What has the US said about resuming the war?

President Trump has offered conflicting signals about Washington’s next steps.

On Wednesday he said the US was no longer negotiating with Tehran and suggested that developments were imminent. “We are going to have something one way or the other that’ll happen fairly soon,” he told reporters.

He also said Washington could end the war immediately but wanted a lasting outcome. “It’ll end very soon. We could leave now, but we want to make sure it lasts for a long time,” Trump told a campaign rally in South Carolina.

Trump previously pledged not to attack Iran before the November 3 elections.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that reaching a peace agreement is extremely difficult and insisted that Iran must stop targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Iran’s uranium enrichment activities have re‑emerged as a point of contention.

Rubio maintains that Washington will reject any deal that allows Iran to develop nuclear weapons, which require highly enriched uranium. “The United States will not support any deal that creates a pathway for Iran to ever have a nuclear weapon,” he said on Wednesday.

Tehran contends that its right to enrichment is guaranteed under the Non‑Proliferation Treaty.

Iran has offered a seven‑day plan to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington ending its blockade of Iranian ports, easing sanctions and unfreezing Iranian assets.

The US Department of State ordered non‑emergency personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, following recent Houthi attacks.

The US embassy in Riyadh has warned of further attacks, and American officials told Reuters that family members could be withdrawn from other Gulf missions.

State Department spokesman Tommy Piggott said departure orders are currently limited to “employees and their family members in Saudi Arabia only” and have not been issued across the Gulf.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated on Sunday his pledge to topple Iran’s government, calling it essential to preventing Tehran from rebuilding its nuclear program and the “axis of resistance,” further raising the prospect of escalation.

Netanyahu made the remarks while campaigning for re‑election in Tuesday’s Israeli polls.

Is war imminent?

Analysts warn that renewed US‑Israeli attacks on Iran are increasingly possible, with both sides preparing for another confrontation despite the continued viability of diplomacy.

“Another round of war seems to be approaching,” Mortazavi said.

“Both sides appear to be preparing for renewed confrontation while escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz increase the risk of a wider conflict,” she added.

Mortazavi noted that elections in the United States and Israel over the next two weeks could influence the timing of military action, but warned that the current trajectory favors escalation over negotiations.

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on Wednesday, “Everyone must know that any action against Iran comes at a cost.”

“If diplomacy can create this understanding, we prefer diplomacy, but if the war continues, Iran has the necessary means to sustain its response,” Rezaei said, according to the IRNA news agency.

Echoing Mortazavi, Khouri cautioned that another confrontation could be approaching, though he suggested US threats might still be part of a negotiating strategy.

“I think imminent conflict is on the cards, but I don’t know if war is the right word to use,” Khouri told Al Jazeera.

He said renewed strikes could target Iran’s critical infrastructure, including electricity networks, transportation systems, bridges and essential services.

“We’re probably going to get some severe attacks on a few targets that will try to make life in Iran very difficult,” he said.

However, Khouri cautioned that Iran’s ability to withstand another major military offensive while inflicting comparable damage on its adversaries remains uncertain.

“It’s not clear if Iran has the ability to withstand major new assaults against it,” he said, while stressing that Tehran is unlikely to surrender to military pressure.

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