Iranian leadership is more comfortable with ongoing confrontation against the United States and its Gulf allies than with pursuing peace, using the friction to distract a disillusioned populace, according to one expert.
U.S. forces have conducted airstrikes against Iran recently after a temporary cessation of hostilities was disrupted by renewed clashes in the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran is less anxious about military action from abroad than it is about domestic discontent, noted Dr. Majid Sadeghpour, a human rights activist and political director of the Organization of Iranian-American Communities, in an interview with Fox News Digital.
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Flames illuminate the scene as anti-government protesters rally in Tehran on Jan. 8. Iran favors a low-level conflict with the United States to divert its citizens’ attention, one human rights activist warned. (Getty Images, File)
Sadeghpour pointed out that American officials provided assurances to Tehran that would have paved the way for a peaceful resolution.
“You can get America to guarantee that it will not seek regime change. Yet, they continued to attack vessels afterward,” Sadeghpour stated. “They also struck our bases in Jordan and Bahrain. This demonstrates that the true threat to the regime is not external bombs, but an uprising from its own people.”
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Vessels and tankers navigate the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Musandam, Oman. President Donald Trump maintains he is not intent on bringing Tehran to the negotiating table. (Reuters, File)
“For a militarized regime that relies on friction, its survival currently depends on that very friction,” he added.
Iran has suffered significant uprisings in recent years, fueled by economic collapse, soaring inflation, and profound dissatisfaction with the regime’s strict religious governance. Furthermore, the Iranian government has quelled anti-government riots and protests using lethal force, arbitrary arrests, and detention, human rights observers report.
According to Sadeghpour, the conflict with the United States benefits the regime by shifting the Iranian public’s focus away from internal issues.
Vice President JD Vance stated on Thursday that Iran has continued to target commercial shipping in the strait, violating a prior agreement to cease such actions.
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Iranian regime leaders, such as Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, are content with the ongoing confrontation with the U.S., an expert says. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images, File)
“The Iranians are doing what the Iranians do,” Vance remarked. “I believe they are losing their capabilities day by day. They are realizing… that their control over the Strait of Hormuz is effectively gone, and it is a rapidly diminishing asset.”
Sadeghpour argued that to achieve regime change, the U.S. should concentrate its efforts on the Iranian population, as Iranian leaders will likely prolong the conflict with the United States for as long as possible.
“The regime is calculating the moment—right after the exhausted population calms down—and will immediately look around asking, ‘how can I get rid of this regime, and who will help me?’ That is precisely what the regime fears,” he said.
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Marines aboard the USS New Orleans (LPD 18) keep watch in the Arabian Sea during naval blockade operations against Iran. (U.S. Central Command)
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday that he is not focused on bringing Tehran to the bargaining table, declaring he “couldn’t care less” if Iran signs a “worthless” agreement.
“They are just playing out the inevitable,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?”